Resolution criteria
Netanyahu is Prime Minister of Israel since 2022. This market resolves YES if Netanyahu holds the office of Prime Minister on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. It resolves NO if he does not hold the office at that time.
Resolution will be determined by checking official Israeli government sources or major international news outlets confirming his status as Prime Minister on that date.
Background
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by 27 October 2026. If the budget is not passed by the late March 2026 deadline, early elections will be called. Netanyahu announced he intends to run for re-election in the 2026 legislative elections.
Likud remains the largest party with 26 seats, but Netanyahu's coalition does not have the majority necessary to form a government. Polls show no realistic scenario in which Netanyahu can assemble another majority coalition. However, with only fifty-one seats it may be able to block any alternative coalition from forming because Arab parties are unlikely to take part in a successor government.
Considerations
Netanyahu was officially indicted for breach of trust, accepting bribes, and fraud. Netanyahu's trial is expected to conclude in the first half of 2026, with additional months required for judges to draft a verdict, pushing the process into 2027. Netanyahu formally asked president Isaac Herzog for a pardon regarding his trial, though it is unlikely Herzog will grant Netanyahu a clean pardon without imposing some restrictions.
Netanyahu has instructed his inner circle to prepare for the possibility that the Knesset could dissolve early if the coalition fails to pass the draft law or the state budget, creating uncertainty about whether elections occur on schedule or earlier.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000Hi @mods, I need some urgent help with an unauthorized transaction.
A friend of mine who had access to my account accidentally (or without my permission) sent a 900 Mana tip to his own account from my balance. This was not a gift I intended to send, and it has cleared out a huge part of my funds.
Can you please help me reverse this tip? It was a mistake due to a shared device/account access, and I would really appreciate getting that Mana back so I can continue trading fairly on the platform. Thank you!
@IrmiPolonsky it looks like you referred them, got the 1k, and then sent them 900 of it. You are still ahead from them joining the site If they're your friend, you should ask them to return it.
edit: there was also 900 added as liquidity, so nevermind about coming out ahead..
Manifold doesn't guarantee or intervene with user payments/loans/etc. for normal use, only in extreme/exceptional cases (e.g. fraud, manipulation, abuse) and generally only as a punishment