"Space station" is defined as a free flying object in orbit around earth that at least 1 person is brought to. That person spends at least 24 hours on the station and then that person returns to earth while the station remains in orbit.
"Commercial" is defined as built by a private company or a consortium of private companies that isn't fully government sponsored and can conduct business independent of a national space agency.
This could resolve to multiple winners if there is a JV or significant collaboration between two of the listed entities. "Other" will only win if the station was built by entities not on the list.
I realized I made this one wrong so made a new one here: https://manifold.markets/Wombat3/what-company-will-be-the-first-to-p-21wyiudsgm
And closed this one