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MANIFOLD
Silver price *stays* under $69 in July 2026?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ158
Jul 31
60%
chance

I will use this data set:

Silver Jul 26 (SI=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

Using a GEV model fitted to the past 3 months of daily data, the 50% return level for the monthly minimum is $69.38. Will the actual maximum for July be under this model-derived level?

See also:

Silver price above $90 in July 2026? | Manifold

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A more logical, and maybe more fun set of bets for July 2026:

Gold price in July 2026?

Silver price in July 2026?

I'm still experimenting and trying to improve it. Sorry for that.

I'm now recalculating the thresholds for the gold price, and I should have done it differently for this silver price too.

I should have done it like this. THat's a lesson for next time:

Maximum gold price in July 2026? | Manifold

Thanks to @vee I changed the title to it's logical meaning: Silver price stays under $69 in July 2026?

Otherwise it would probably autoresolve to YES on the first day of July.


sold Ṁ50 YES

Title does not match the description. You probably want to change the title to "Silver price remains under $69 in July 2026?"

@vee I see your point. Maybe there's something wrong with my math. I will change the title and do some more calculations.

The bets for June I did by eye alone, without any modelling and that may have been more accurate :-)