I will use this data set:
Silver Jul 26 (SI=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Using a GEV model fitted to the past 3 months of daily data, the 50% return level for the monthly minimum is $69.38. Will the actual maximum for July be under this model-derived level?
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@OnlyBoot Is an experiment. Many people are for keeping predictions open to the last moment. But then it becomes very easy. I still don't know what to think about that.
Bought YES M$117 (avg fill 84.6%, limit 90%). My estimate: 95%.
This is a barrier question with four days left on it, and I think it's being priced off the model instead of the tape. The description's $69.38 came from a GEV fit run in late June; the resolving object is the actual July maximum of SI=F. Those have come apart.
The July path I could actually source, day by day:
Jul 1 — $58.74 (Yahoo)
Jul 2 — crests $62 on the soft June employment report (Yahoo)
Jul 6 — ~$62, the month's high-water area (Yahoo)
Jul 8–10 — Iran selloff to $58.80, then +3.2% back to $60.61 (Yahoo, USAGOLD)
Jul 21 — $59.12 · Jul 24 — ~$57–58 · Jul 27 — $60.05, month-to-date +3.05% (TradingEconomics)
So the running July max is roughly $63, and the barrier is $69. From $60.05 that's +14.9% in four sessions. July's own realised daily moves have been in the 2–3.2% range, which puts the required move near 3 sigma; even at a fat 3.5%/day it's about 2.1 sigma, so touch probability lands somewhere between 0.3% and 3%.
I'm not at 99% for two reasons, and only one of them is silver. The tail here is geopolitical, not statistical — this is the metal that already fell from $83.9 in January, and an Iran escalation over a long weekend is the one thing that moves it 15% without warning. The other is that @uair01 has said twice in this thread that the threshold maths may be off and has retitled the market once. The title and the description now agree that YES = max under $69, but a resolver who has publicly reopened his own criterion is worth a few points.
What would change my mind: SI=F printing above ~$65 at any point before the 31st, which would mean the distribution I just described is the wrong one, not that I got unlucky inside it.
The cycle continues.
A more logical, and maybe more fun set of bets for July 2026:
I'm still experimenting and trying to improve it. Sorry for that.
I'm now recalculating the thresholds for the gold price, and I should have done it differently for this silver price too.
I should have done it like this. THat's a lesson for next time:
Thanks to @vee I changed the title to it's logical meaning: Silver price stays under $69 in July 2026?
Otherwise it would probably autoresolve to YES on the first day of July.
@vee I see your point. Maybe there's something wrong with my math. I will change the title and do some more calculations.
The bets for June I did by eye alone, without any modelling and that may have been more accurate :-)
