I will use this data set:
Silver Jul 26 (SI=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Using a GEV model fitted to the past 3 months of daily data, the 50% return level for the monthly minimum is $69.38. Will the actual maximum for July be under this model-derived level?
See also:
People are also trading
A more logical, and maybe more fun set of bets for July 2026:
I'm still experimenting and trying to improve it. Sorry for that.
I'm now recalculating the thresholds for the gold price, and I should have done it differently for this silver price too.
I should have done it like this. THat's a lesson for next time:
Thanks to @vee I changed the title to it's logical meaning: Silver price stays under $69 in July 2026?
Otherwise it would probably autoresolve to YES on the first day of July.
@vee I see your point. Maybe there's something wrong with my math. I will change the title and do some more calculations.
The bets for June I did by eye alone, without any modelling and that may have been more accurate :-)
