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MANIFOLD
Gold price in July 2026?
11
Ṁ100Ṁ651
resolved Aug 1
100%3%
Under median of June daily minimum: $4254
0.7%
Above maximum June price: $4591
95%
Above median of June daily maximum: $4342
0.7%
Under minimum June price: $3963

If this attracts enough traders I'll do this every month, as an exercise in statistics.

Price at any time in July 2026.

Source of the numbers: Python script written by DeepSeek:

Analysis Period: 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-28

Trading Days Analyzed: 20

1. Maximum price last month: $4591.80

2. Median of daily maximum prices: $4342.70

3. Minimum price last month: $3963.30

4. Median of daily minimum prices: $4254.65

Gold Aug 26 (GC=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

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By code:

Monthly maximum based on daily high: $4,199.70

Median of the month's daily highs: $4,101.20

Median of the month's daily lows: $4,027.10

Monthly minimum based on daily low: $3,963.00

By hand:

Max. on 7 July 2026 - 4.199,70

Min. on 1 July 2026 - $3,963.00 (Another: Min. on 16 July 2026 - 3.985,90)

The only correct answer is:

Under median of June daily minimum: $4254