A primitive Python script to analyse basic silver futures price statistics of July.
Silver Sep 26 (SI=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Added a primitive linear regression prediction.
See if you can beat the statistics:
Statistics for July 2026
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Monthly maximum based on daily high: $62.62
Median of the month's daily highs: $59.12
Median of the month's daily lows: $57.64
Monthly minimum based on daily low: $55.01
Primitive linear projection
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Regression source period: July 2026 only
Prediction period: August 2026
Last actual observation: 2026-07-31
Prediction ending date: 2026-08-31
Daily-high regression slope: $-0.1582 per observation
Daily-low regression slope: $-0.0893 per observation
Projected daily high at period end: $55.88
Projected daily low at period end: $55.47
Statistics for July 2026
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Monthly maximum based on daily high: $62.62
Median of the month's daily highs: $59.12
Median of the month's daily lows: $57.64
Monthly minimum based on daily low: $55.01
Primitive linear projection
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Regression source period: July 2026 only
Prediction period: August 2026
Last actual observation: 2026-07-31
Prediction ending date: 2026-08-31
Daily-high regression slope: $-0.1582 per observation
Daily-low regression slope: $-0.0893 per observation
Projected daily high at period end: $55.88
Projected daily low at period end: $55.47
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SUMMARY OF CALCULATED VALUES:
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1. Monthly Maximum (Daily High): $62.62
2. Monthly Maximum Median (Daily High): $59.12
3. Monthly Minimum Median (Daily Low): $57.64
4. Monthly Minimum (Daily Low): $55.01
5. Predicted End of Next Month (High): $54.08
6. Predicted End of Next Month (Low): $55.00
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PRIMITIVE LINEAR PROJECTION
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Latest actual observation: 2026-07-31
Projection ending date: 2026-08-24
Daily-high regression slope: $-0.1582 per observation
Daily-low regression slope: $-0.0893 per observation
Projected daily high at period end: $54.08
Projected daily low at period end: $55.00
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Update 2026-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market features 5 mutually exclusive ranges.
The market will resolve once a range is touched.
Update 2026-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve based on price boundaries crossed during the period.
If the price crosses a specific boundary (ValueX), that boundary will resolve.
If the price continues to cross subsequent boundaries (e.g., ValueX+Y), those options will also resolve.
1,000Fun unrelated observation:
EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) is useless for this statistical prediction, because it's not volatile enough:
SUMMARY OF CALCULATED VALUES:
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1. Monthly Maximum (Daily High): $1.15
2. Monthly Maximum Median (Daily High): $1.14
3. Monthly Minimum Median (Daily Low): $1.14
4. Monthly Minimum (Daily Low): $1.14
5. Predicted End of Next Month (High): $1.15
6. Predicted End of Next Month (Low): $1.14
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Downloaded 2 trading days of data.
--- CHECK RESULTS ---
1. Monthly Maximum Daily High: $60.28
-> Was it ABOVE $62.62? NO
-> Was it ABOVE $59.12? YES
2. Monthly Minimum Daily Low: $57.67
-> Was it BELOW $57.64? NO
-> Was it BELOW $55.01? NO
The thing is bloody volatile! 😭
will you resolve like here? /uair01/silver-price-in-june-2026 where you only resolve below min if it happens to be below min AND below median?
@JasonMendoza2008 I'm still experimenting. In this case there are 5 mutually exclusive ranges. And once a range is touched it will be resolved.
@JasonMendoza2008 I hope it is more logical and correct this time. See my reply to you in the resolved bet. Now if the price crosses ValueX that boundary will get resolved and if it continues to ValueX+Y the next boundary will be resolved. This would be something for monitoring by bot, but I don't know how to do that yet.
@uair01 "Now if the price crosses ValueX that boundary will get resolved and if it continues to ValueX+Y the next boundary will be resolved." That seems to be the perfect way to do things!