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MANIFOLD
Silver price in July 2026?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ250
resolved Aug 1
100%41%
Under minimum June price: $56.13
7%
Above maximum June price: $76.03
12%
Above median daily June maximum: $68.81
40%
Under median daily June minimum: $66.94

If I get enough traders on this exercise, I may do it every month.

Price at any time in July 2026.

Source of the numbers: Python script written by DeepSeek:

Analysis Period: 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-28

Trading Days Analyzed: 20

1. Maximum price last month: $76.03

2. Median of daily maximum prices: $68.81

3. Minimum price last month: $56.13

4. Median of daily minimum prices: $66.94

Typical daily trading range (median high - median low): $1.87

Total monthly price range (max - min): $19.90

Current closing price: $59.67

Silver Sep 26 (SI=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

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@uair01 wtf, Under median daily June minimum: $66.94 should also resolve YES.

@JasonMendoza2008 If you feel unfairly treated I can give your 23M back. Or 30M, whatever. I started on this as a simple statistical exercise, but I'm discovering it's more complicated than I thought. That's "some weird kind of fun".

@uair01 Can you not resolve it YES?

@uair01 Ah you can't, you selected the wrong market type.

@JasonMendoza2008 Yes, that is another lesson learned ... in the new bets I can resolve separate events. And I already did for BItcoin:

Bitcoin price August 2026 - beat the statistics | Manifold

On the first day already two boundaries were reached. Surprising.

@uair01 I won't ask for my mana back, thanks for clarifying!

By script 1:

Data for July 2026:

Number of trading days: 22

Monthly Maximum (based on Daily High): $62.62

Monthly Maximum Median (based on Daily High): $59.12

Monthly Minimum Median (based on Daily Low): $57.64

Monthly Minimum (based on Daily Low): $55.01

By script 2:

Statistics for July 2026

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Monthly maximum based on daily high: $62.62

Median of the month's daily highs: $59.12

Median of the month's daily lows: $57.64

Monthly minimum based on daily low: $55.01

By hand:

Max. 62.620 on 7 July 2026

Min. 55.898 on 16 July 2026 <<< this looks correct but is wrong:

2026-07-17 55.549999 56.037998 55.014999 56.037998 56.037998 427

Resolves to this one:

Under minimum June price: $56.13

Next month I'll do it like this: