Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the option representing the highest daily LBMA Silver Price (in USD per troy ounce) set during the period from market creation (July 23, 2026) to December 31, 2026, inclusive.

• Source of Truth: The market will resolve using the daily LBMA Silver Price administered by the ICE Benchmark Administration (set at 12:00 PM London time). Data will be verified via the official LBMA Precious Metal Prices or historical records on Trading Economics.

• Discrepancies: In the event of a source feed outage, the daily closing OTC spot price on Bloomberg or TradingView will be used as a secondary source of truth.

• Option Ranges:

  • $55-$60: Highest price is $\ge $55.00$ and $\le $60.00$

  • $60.01-$65: Highest price is $\ge $60.01$ and $\le $65.00$

  • $65.01-$70: Highest price is $\ge $65.01$ and $\le $70.00$

  • $70.01-$75: Highest price is $\ge $70.01$ and $\le $75.00$

  • $75.01-$80: Highest price is $\ge $75.01$ and $\le $80.00$

  • More than $80: Highest price is strictly $> $80.00$

  • Other: If the highest daily spot price during the measurement period never reaches $55.00 (remaining at $54.99 or below), this market will resolve to Other (automatically appended by Manifold).

Background

Silver has experienced dramatic price movements in 2026. The metal reached an all-time high of $121.62 per troy ounce in January 2026 before entering a major correction, trading around the high-$50s range by late July. Traders are weighing ongoing industrial supply deficits against macroeconomic pressures—including Federal Reserve rate expectations under Chair Kevin Warsh and geopolitical tensions—to predict whether silver will launch another rally in the second half of the year. J.P. Morgan Commodities Research previously forecasted an average price of $81/oz for silver across 2026.