A primitive Python script to analyse basic gold price statistics of July.
Bitcoin BTC (BTC-USD) Live Price, News, Chart & Price History - Yahoo Finance
Added a primitive linear regression prediction.
See if you can beat the statistics:


Statistics for July 2026
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Monthly maximum based on daily high: $66,910.06
Median of the month's daily highs: $64,638.70
Median of the month's daily lows: $63,206.21
Monthly minimum based on daily low: $57,747.77
Primitive linear projection
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Regression source period: July 2026 only
Prediction period: August 2026
Last actual observation: 2026-07-31
Prediction ending date: 2026-08-31
Daily-high regression slope: $92.5500 per observation
Daily-low regression slope: $112.7765 per observation
Projected daily high at period end: $67,271.73
Projected daily low at period end: $64,779.17
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SUMMARY OF CALCULATED VALUES:
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1. Monthly Maximum (Daily High): $66910.06
2. Monthly Maximum Median (Daily High): $64638.70
3. Monthly Minimum Median (Daily Low): $63206.21
4. Monthly Minimum (Daily Low): $57747.77
5. Predicted End of Next Month (High): $68029.80
6. Predicted End of Next Month (Low): $67052.00
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PRIMITIVE LINEAR PROJECTION
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Latest actual observation: 2026-07-31
Projection ending date: 2026-08-24
Daily-high regression slope: $92.5500 per observation
Daily-low regression slope: $112.7765 per observation
Projected daily high at period end: $68,029.80
Projected daily low at period end: $67,052.00
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Update 2026-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Options will resolve to NO if the price goes outside the specified range at any point during the month, rather than only at the end of the month.
Update 2026-08-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of price volatility, options can resolve early prior to the end of the month:
Stays between the medians will resolve to NO as soon as the price exits this range.
Threshold options (such as Under median daily lows, Under minimum daily low, Above median daily highs, and Above maximum daily high) can resolve to YES immediately when their respective price conditions are met.
@deagol Downloaded 6 trading days of data.
--- CHECK RESULTS ---
1. Monthly Maximum Daily High: $64,954.35
-> Was it ABOVE $66,910.06? NO
-> Was it ABOVE $64,638.70? YES
2. Monthly Minimum Daily Low: $62,226.58
-> Was it BELOW $63,206.21? YES
-> Was it BELOW $57,747.77? NO
Resolved, thanks!
@creator do you only care about price as of the end of the month or if ANY value is outside the given range the option resolves as no instantly?
@MRME The second interpretation is the intended one. I will have to check periodically. I can resolve the options separately.

Yes and it went under median low also. So two prediction resolve right away.
It's weird, but those are the rules we made 😂
@uair01 that answer was "Under median daily lows: $63,206.21 (but above min)" I would think the "but" clause could still trigger during the month, so might still resolve NO? can't be sure as this is all pretty weird as you say.
@uair01 in which case it should've resolved NO but you already resolved YES. that's what i mean, weird rules lead to sloppy resolution.
@deagol I'm not so afraid of a sloppy resolution. In a period of extreme volatility it might be possible, and correct, to resolve the cases like this, in this sequence:
T1 > T2 > T3 > T4 > T5 > T6
Above maximum daily high: $66,910.06
Resolves YES at T6
Above median daily highs: $64,638.70 (but below max)
Resolves YES at T5
Stays between the medians
Resolves NO at T1
Under median daily lows: $63,206.21 (but above min)
Resolves YES at T1
Under minimum daily low: $57,747.77
Resolves YES at T2
@uair01 i don't get any of that T1-T6 (points in time?) nor what it's for. just resolve each option YES (or NO) immediately when all its conditions are met (or any of them fail), and at the end of the month can decide any surviving answers YES if all conditions held.
You misresolved one option YES when not all the conditions had been met (the 'but' clause can still make it NO).
I agree it’s a weird way to frame the question, but OP is looking at any single instantaneous point in time. The moment Bitcoin is under 63,206.21 but above 57,747.77 that option resolves as yes.
This is why I clarified above if it was end of the month (which is where I think your head is at) versus instantaneous.
@deagol so all options can resolve yes instantaneously, but only no at the end of the month (except for the median entry, which is effectively reverse coded). I get what OP is doing here even if the phrasing isn’t quite there.
@MRME well then i don't understand the logic. The option "Under median daily lows: $63,206.21 (but above min)" was YES at that point but can be NO at some future point? but the option "Stays between the medians" must hold throughout the month, not like the others?
edit: why isn't it just "above x" or "below y" without the "but" clauses? that would precisely and unambiguously give your interpretation. the creator has stated that the "but" clauses can still get triggered, which means those options can't resolve YES until the end of the month, although they could resolve NO at any time if it's below min or above max.
@deagol so the "but" clause isn't doing anything. can you give an example where the "but" clause in the two options that have it could affect their resolution compared to not having it, so e.g.
"Above median daily highs: $64,638.70 (but below max)" compared to
"Above median daily highs: $64,638.70"
seems redundant under this logic, despite you saying earlier that it could still get triggered.
@uair01 btw that pic describes T1 to T6 as ascending (T1<T2<T3...), while the text described those as descending (T1>T2>T3...)

