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MANIFOLD
Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 100 USD/kg on June 30, 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ5
2027
52%
chance

This market resolves YES if Sm metal (Western) spot price exceeds 100 USD/kg on June 30, 2027.

What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to June 30, 2027.

YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 100 USD/kg on June 30, 2027 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 100 USD/kg on June 30, 2027

Resolution sources (priority order):

Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment

Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices

Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm metal Western spot

SMM samarium metal Western assessment

Market context
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