Will there be credible evidence that the US actions in Venezuela were pre-arranged with local supporters (political, intelligence, military etc.). That the US were planning this together with Venezuelan groups, institutions and power bases.
My inspiration for this (warning > disreputable gore site):
It's incredible how low the helicopters fly. They really don't expect any resistance:
America have started attacking Venezuela/Caracas | 03 Jan (20m ago) - WPD
Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that this market requires cooperation with some part of the Venezuelan military and security services for a YES resolution. The creator believes such cooperation was necessary for the operation to succeed, given Maduro's situation and the nature of the military action.
Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A single CIA agent would not be sufficient for YES resolution. The creator clarifies that in practice, this would require a project inside the CIA with a codename and dedicated team to have enough moving power.
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies that a decapitation action is considered comparable to regime change for the purposes of this market. The absence of a complete regime change does not affect resolution - the market can still resolve YES if there is credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for the military action that occurred.
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the threshold for "local support" requires substantial cooperation, such as an agreement with the military. This means significant institutional support from groups, institutions, and power bases - not just a few individuals or persons outside the institutions of power.
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies that while substantial cooperation (like an agreement with the military) is required, this can be satisfied by a handful of people at sufficiently high levels - specifically a handful of US politicians, CIA agents, and US and Venezuelan top military officials, as long as they are at a high enough level in their respective institutions.
1,000People are also trading
No evidence yet:
The opposition, led by Machado and González, has proposed amnesty laws to encourage defections. However, these offers lack credibility in the eyes of the generals. Without a guarantee of safety that includes protection from U.S. prosecution—a concession that is politically difficult for Washington to grant given the “narco-terrorist” narrative—the amnesty strategy is unlikely to fracture military cohesion.
Governance vacuum: The state apparatus has been purged of technocrats and filled with loyalists. A transition government would face a dearth of qualified personnel to run ministries, manage the power grid, or oversee the oil industry.
Venezuela Regime Change: The Military and Political Risks | GovFacts
No evidence yet:
Q: Media reports have suggested that the Trump Administration’s ultimate goal is regime change in Venezuela. Do you give credence to this hypothesis? How likely is that objective to be met?
A: The idea that the Trump Administration’s ultimate goal in Venezuela is regime change has gained credence in the past few weeks. Given the magnitude of the U.S. military build-up and show of force, the claim that the objective is fighting drugs is not credible. The Administration’s hope appears to be that Maduro will be so rattled by the military deployment that he will see the writing on the wall and decide to self-deport to a friendly country. So far, there are no signs he is ready to pursue that option. The other possibility is that Maduro will be ousted from inside the military ranks, and someone will claim the $50 million bounty on his head. It is hard to know how probable that is. Some experts talk about a surgical strike against Maduro along the lines of the drone strike Trump ordered against General Soleimani in his first term. Even if any of these options were to materialize, the question remains: what happens next? If Maduro is removed but a military officer or someone else within the regime takes over, will that be acceptable? If not, how would the U.S. help engineer a democratic change? Since committing U.S. troops on Venezuelan soil appears to be out of the question, given the enormous risks involved, how realistic is it to believe that a transition can be achieved in the short term in a country dominated by Chavista rule for over a quarter century? Key questions abound.
@pureprofit I see this as a decapitation action, comparable to regime change. This is not relevant for resolution.
@uair01 - what's the threshold for local support? Does it mean significant insiders - "groups, institutions and power bases" - not just a few individuals or persons outside the institutions of power?
@uair01 But also ... this may be an agreement between a handful US politicians, a handful of CIA agents and a handful of US and Venezualan top military. But if they are on a sufficiently high level, this handful will certainly count.
@MachiNi Edge case. That would not have enough moving power. In practice this would be a project inside the CIA with a codename and dedicated team.
Relevant market: [Will President Maduro be removed from office before [Date]?]
https://manifold.markets/dynamics/when-coup-in-venezuela-will-a-new-g
Speculation on Marginal Revolution:
Matt
2026-01-03 07:15:33
We definitely had help from anti-Maduro factions in the venezuelan military. If it was that easy to just remove a leader we dont like as a purely military operation, we would have already done so in Cuba
Hyperborealis
2026-01-03 07:26:44
This is exactly right. The military has always had decisive power in Venezuela, and first claim on the oil revenues. Kicking Maduro out and restarting the oil economy will be a pretty nice windfall to the uniformed types. If anything, I am surprised it took so long.
@uair01 Marie
2026-01-03 11:56:49
Maduro was extremely unpopular at home and abroad and widely seen as illegitimate internationally (see also Nobel peace prize). There has been a large outflux of refugees into neighboring countries.
Is Delta Force awesome? Sure. But this required cooperation with some part of the Venezuelan military and security services.
@uair01 kwazii
2026-01-03 15:50:47
The $6 billion in air defenses did not seem to be effective. Was it because the material is crap, or a general ordered them to stand down? The latter would be a smart move, the former means very bad things for those country's that have such defenses.
@uair01 Michael Thomas
2026-01-03 11:26:50
Maduro had no one to stick up for him. The fact that it seems to have gone so smoothly strongly suggests (as a poster above mentioned) that there were some people inside who were sick of him. The fact that he had no support was what gave Trump the opportunity to go after him.
@uair01 Calvin Hobbes
2026-01-03 10:56:59
“ This raid demonstrates US military capabilities in planning, logistics, and execution…”
It probably helped a lot that the CIA was able to bribe key figures in the Venezuelan military to turn against Maduro. My guess is that Maduro was “arrested” by those guys and then handed over to the Americans.
@uair01 Calvin Hobbes
2026-01-03 10:00:33
Mercouris and Christoforou comment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSs8cbPbBlk
They’re pretty sure that the US bribed the Venezuelan military to turn against Maduro. That makes sense to me. If the CIA offers to pay, say, tens of millions of dollars to each of a few key generals, why would they turn that down?
Mercouris and Christoforou also mention that the US has dropped any pretense of obeying international law and has turned to piracy and kidnapping as tools for foreign policy. What could possibly go wrong?
@uair01 I doubt it was the military who provided the assistance since they were the ones who gained the most from the situation.
Of course this, being true, makes the whole situation so much worse for the venezuelans.
@Gugra If the government is toppled and new people come forward there's a chance we'll hear about it. Someone will be too proud to stay silent :-)