Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if credible evidence emerges by December 31, 2026 that Maduro's removal from power on January 3, 2026 was orchestrated as an internal coup with direct US military assistance, rather than a unilateral US military operation. Resolution requires documented evidence that Venezuelan military or government officials coordinated with the US to remove Maduro, or that the operation was planned and executed jointly with internal Venezuelan actors.

Resolution sources may include: declassified government documents, congressional testimony, investigative journalism from major outlets, memoirs or statements from key Venezuelan or US officials, or court filings. The market creator will determine resolution based on the preponderance of available evidence.

The question hinges on distinguishing between a unilateral US military operation and a coordinated internal coup. The military raid appeared to be merely a "smash and grab" to snatch Maduro, with no significant U.S. military presence remaining on the ground. However, Trump offered that the United States would take control of Venezuela, perhaps in coordination with one of Maduro's most trusted aides, suggesting possible post-capture coordination. The rapid collapse of Venezuelan military resistance and the survival of regime officials could support either interpretation.

I will not bet in this market.