SpaceX first landed a Falcon 9 on December 22 2015. Will any other entity manage a similar feat on or before December 22 2025, an entire decade later?
Parachute or runway landings don’t count (ex Electron, Shuttle SRBs), though a catch (similar to the SS/SH recovery system) would. Soft water landings don’t count - must be on a ship or landing pad. A recovery failure after successful landing in one piece (not including immediate toppling over/explosion) would resolve true.
Hop tests do not count. Suborbital flights, unless on a near-orbital trajectory (like Starship’s flight tests) do not count. The flight of the second stage doesn’t need to be successful.
New Glenn is the only credible contender IMO. Other aspirants include Neutron, Stoke Nova, and Zhuque 3, but as far as I’m aware they are targeting 2026+ for their first recovery attempts.
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It's looking pretty likely now that they'll make their Nov launch date.
It's clearly hard to land an orbital class booster, but I'm thinking they're more likely than not to pull it off this time. Surely their
Hiring SpaceX employees who've done it before
Well resourced company
New Shepard experience
Second flight
together count for something.
@DanHomerick I have a modest (250) limit order up at 55% if anyone wants in on NO.
Ars,Technica recently ran an article on New Glenn that put the next flight NET November:
Pat Remias, Blue Origin's vice president of space systems development, said Thursday that the company is confident in nailing the landing on the second flight of New Glenn. That launch, with NASA's next set of Mars probes, is likely to occur no earlier than November from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida.
@Mqrius They’re not planning to attempt a landing on the first flight though, so that pushes it to 2026 even going by their “ambitious” schedule