SpaceX first landed a Falcon 9 on December 22 2015. Will any other entity manage a similar feat on or before December 22 2025, an entire decade later?

Parachute or runway landings don’t count (ex Electron, Shuttle SRBs), though a catch (similar to the SS/SH recovery system) would. Soft water landings don’t count - must be on a ship or landing pad. A recovery failure after successful landing in one piece (not including immediate toppling over/explosion) would resolve true.

Hop tests do not count. Suborbital flights, unless on a near-orbital trajectory (like Starship’s flight tests) do not count. The flight of the second stage doesn’t need to be successful.

New Glenn is the only credible contender IMO. Other aspirants include Neutron, Stoke Nova, and Zhuque 3, but as far as I’m aware they are targeting 2026+ for their first recovery attempts.