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Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027?
11
Ṁ190Ṁ522
Dec 31
83%
chance

China here meaning either the state or a Chinese company.

Stage must land under its own power, without the use of parachutes.

Comment clarification: it must be the first stage of an orbital rocket, and the upper most stage of that rocket must achieve orbit on the same launch. It does not need to deliver a payload to orbit.

Market context
Technology
China
Space
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predictedYES

Successful 'hop' test from Chinese company iSpace

https://x.com/SpaceNews_Inc/status/1720085942135116152?s=20

Any other conditions? This is significantly less likely if it's the first stage of an orbital rocket and excludes test mules.

predictedYES

@Sailfish yes, of an orbital rocket

predictedYES

@Sailfish have clarified in the description

Chinese company plans to launch rocket comparable to Falcon 9 in 2024
Chinese company plans to launch rocket comparable to Falcon 9 in 2024 Chinese rocket firm Space Pioneer is planning to launch a rocket comparable to the SpaceX Falcon 9 next year.

https://spacenews.com/chinese-company-plans-to-launch-rocket-comparable-to-falcon-9-in-2024/

https://www.space.com/china-galactic-energy-pallas-1-reusable-rocket

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