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MANIFOLD
Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027?
12
Ṁ190Ṁ2.4k
Dec 31
99%
chance

China here meaning either the state or a Chinese company.

Stage must land under its own power, without the use of parachutes.

Comment clarification: it must be the first stage of an orbital rocket, and the upper most stage of that rocket must achieve orbit on the same launch. It does not need to deliver a payload to orbit.

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China successfully lands reusable rocket, state media says


China has successfully landed a reusable rocket for the first time in a major breakthrough for the country's space programme, according to state media.

The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation said the Long March 10B rocket lifted off from Hainan in southern China at 12:15 local time (04:15GMT) on Friday.

Around six minutes after separating from the rocket's upper stage, its booster returned to Earth vertically and was recovered on a floating platform.

@JoshuaWilkes Resolve please

predictedYES

Successful 'hop' test from Chinese company iSpace

https://x.com/SpaceNews_Inc/status/1720085942135116152?s=20

Any other conditions? This is significantly less likely if it's the first stage of an orbital rocket and excludes test mules.

predictedYES

@Sailfish yes, of an orbital rocket

predictedYES

@Sailfish have clarified in the description