Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027?
Basic
9
Ṁ262
2026
67%
chance

China here meaning either the state or a Chinese company.

Stage must land under its own power, without the use of parachutes.

Comment clarification: it must be the first stage of an orbital rocket, and the upper most stage of that rocket must achieve orbit on the same launch. It does not need to deliver a payload to orbit.

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predicts YES

Successful 'hop' test from Chinese company iSpace

https://x.com/SpaceNews_Inc/status/1720085942135116152?s=20

Any other conditions? This is significantly less likely if it's the first stage of an orbital rocket and excludes test mules.

predicts YES

@Sailfish yes, of an orbital rocket

predicts YES

@Sailfish have clarified in the description

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