https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy Update 2025-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Successful launch criteria: The reused booster must launch and make the payload reach orbit. The booster must survive the launch, but it is not required to land intact on its second attempt.

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

MANIFOLD

Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?

Ṁ102Ṁ6.7k

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

ALL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy

Update 2025-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Successful launch criteria:
- The reused booster must launch and make the payload reach orbit.
- The booster must survive the launch, but it is not required to land intact on its second attempt.

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If it launched to orbit and deployed payloads on its second launch (first launch being suborbital) would that be enough to resolve yes immediately or would in this case, a third launch of this booster be needed (or second launch of a different booster)?

What is required for it to be considered 'successful'?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@strutheo

@Nat relaunching a used one and it manages to make payload reach orbit and survives. but it does not need to make it back down in one piece the 2nd time, since it will have launched successfully