Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032?
Basic
28
873
2033
43%
chance

The technology uses a vacuum-sealed centrifuge to spin a rocket and then hurl it to space at up to 4,700 mph (7,500 km/h; 2.1 km/s). The rocket then ignites its engines at an altitude of roughly 200,000 ft (60 km) to reach orbital speed of 17,150 mph (27,600 km/h; 7.666 km/s) with a payload of up to 200kg. Peak acceleration would be approximately 10,000 g. If successful, the acceleration concept is projected to lower the cost of launches and to use much less power, with the price of a single space launch reduced by a factor of 20 to under US\$500,000.

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opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 55% order

Placed a \$1k NO limit order at 55%

What counts as "orbital boost range"? "Successfully"? Does the payload have to make it intact to a specific altitude? Is there a velocity or total energy requirement at that altitude?

@EvanDaniel maybe there is more recent news, but i believe the current question is can they even throw a rocket up to that height at all (approx 200K feet it looks like form wikipedia), so that is the main question this market is resolving .it has to be a rocket they are throwing.

the rocket can attempt to launch further into orbit after being thrown, but that won't be required since this market is just about the throw part mainly.

@strutheo OK. So, must be a rocket (not an inert test payload), must get to 200K ft altitude, rocket firing not required to happen or be successful?

@EvanDaniel it can fire but it does not have to successfully reach orbit after (like it the throw is successful, but the rocket then blows up when it tries to ignite boosters for orbit , i will still resolve this yes)

@strutheo Does it have to maintain the correct orientation it would need to fire?