Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027?

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Ṁ215

2026

82%

chance

ALL

~~Resolves YES if reusable rocket successfully reaches at least low stage orbit and booster rocket lands vertically in Falcon 9-like fashion.~~

Update 2026-07-03

edited back to original resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if a reused rocket successfully reaches at least low stage orbit.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Feel like they should actually need to reuse it for it to count, regardless of how they recover the booster. But it's your question of course.

Does this mean ‘reuse of an orbital boost stage’ or just ‘flight of a booster designed for reusability’?

The first. If it wont be used again then technically it shouldn't be considered "reusable"

bought Ṁ50 YES

This would satisfy that criteria then? https://www.space.com/rocket-lab-recovered-electron-production-line-reflight

Hmmm.. fair. Perhaps I should specify it should be reusable as if "vertically lands on the platform using boosters like Falcon 9"?

That would be a particular design choice in service of a goal of ‘rapid reusability’, which is a different and quantifiable question!

Wait, you just updated the resolution criteria to this narrower description? I call shenanigans and/or request a rebate

yeah I update description yesterday.

"Resolves YES if reusable rocket successfully reaches at least low stage orbit and booster rocket lands vertically in Falcon 9-like fashion."

Apologies if that wasn't correct move. I can revert it to previous version, do a rebate ..or close the question.

(sorry I am new to the manifold so not sure how it works 😅 )

Not to worry, I am also quite new! Perhaps @mods can be of assistance. The community guidelines docs did not seem to be clear on this.

Thank you for understanding!

Alternatively I can resolve the question based on your previous comment: https://manifold.markets/JankoPrester/will-any-company-or-space-agency-ot#a6r41jz4x4

All options are fine with me.

Noting here that the reuse of booster hardware described in that article is yet to occur, I think the market as originally described in the title is useful as-is.

I'd recommend switching back to the original description and then clarifying that it has to have been used. So something like:

Resolves YES if a reused rocket successfully reaches at least low stage orbit.

Also, the market currently is set to close on July 9 of this year. Would you like me to extend it to December 31, 2026?

Ok, that sounds reasonable! I will update the description accordingly.

Extension sounds fine, bur wasnt this limited by amount of my available mana? I remember I needd to pay extra mana for longer market duration. If not, yeah please extend it!