🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
Aug 1
Josh Hawley
Hugo Chavez
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
Cersei Lannister
Trump's attempted assassin
Dan Schneider
Muhammad the prophet
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
A cockroach
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Kang and/or Kodos
Ivan the terrible
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Dylan Klebold
Shaun King
Steve Sailer
Otto Skorzeny
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"

High Percent answer = Manifold would vote for Trump instead of this person
Low Percent answer = Manifold would vote for this person instead of Trump

Will be resolved by a poll for each option when the market closes.

See other for more options: /strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma-174d8cf13790

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I’m surprised no one has voted on Qin Shi Huang yet

Just created a similar market but versus yourself instead of Trump

As founder and CEO of openasteroidimpact.org, I strongly contest the current top choice.

already did giuliani, want to pick another @StochasticParrot ? i renamed it placeholder

Heads up guys, these active options were unironically literal Nazis (or 'just' in the Nazi Wehrmacht):

  • Karl Donitz

  • Erich von Manstein

  • Albert Speer

  • Otto Skorzeny

  • Hasso von Manteuffel

  • Erwin Rommel

and these options were suspiciously Nazi-adjacent/enabling:

  • Paul Von Hindenburg

  • Erich Ludendorff

  • Jozef Tiso

  • Phillipe Petain

  • Miklos Horthy

  • Franz von Papen

and these options were confederates:

  • James Longstreet

Manstein and von Manteuffel were not Nazis, the latter was moreover a moderating influence

Erich von Manstein:

Hasso von Manteuffel:

seems sus 🤔

bought Ṁ25 Answer #w7n3wh1so1 NO

Being in the wehrmacht does not imply being a Nazi

bought Ṁ20 Answer #x85rig0yxs YES

May I have permission to add this to my out-of-context quotes market? (if option creation costs become affordable ever again lol)

lol yes good one


You don't get a second chance with AI X-risk, and Yann seems quite likely to consistently and competently sabotage the AI safety efforts of others

Moreover, even if you think Trump would deal with it even worse, Yann's likely policies could make it much more likely that the take-off happens within his own presidency rather than whoever gets elected next


To quote @BrunoParga's comment:


Linus Pauling was a Nobel Prize-winning chemist, just like LeCun is a Turing Award winner for AI capabilities research.

Linus Pauling was really, really dumb about a closely related but distinct subject than the one he was an expert in, biochemistry - he believed in consuming massive amounts of vitamin C for your health.

Yann LeCun is really, really dumb about a closely related but distinct subject than the one he's an expert in, AI safety - he believes corporate law could control AGI (among other batshittery).

Both of them persevere because they are not aware of their ignorance in the relevant field.

The difference is that Pauling made expensive pee, and LeCun might get humanity




If Yann causes superintelligence alignment to fail, it will kill us and everyone we love.


"We are not ready. We are not on track to be significantly readier in the foreseeable future. If we go ahead on this everyone will die, including children who did not choose this and did not do anything wrong." - Eliezer Yudkowsky

Obviously it's not guaranteed, but I personally believe the chances are 20-40% of death.

bought Ṁ100 Answer #6e5960920c6c YES

Trump's veto is the reason the PATRIOT Act is no more, a bill I'd assume the modal Manifolder heavily dislikes

False: the House never passed the reauthorization, no veto took place.

he is died

@Lexer spoilers

@robm sorry. how do i deleted a comment

@Lexer you don't, but you can edit it to read "[deleted]" and nothing else

bought Ṁ50 Answer #e7d97dd35ffd NO

liu shan

Gongsun yuan

Gongsun zan

Gongsun shu

Wang mang

sun hao

Louis xvi


Albert Speer

King mithridates of pontus


Brent dill

@StochasticParrot Karl donitz

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