[Add options] Who would be so good that Manifold would vote for them over themselves in a presidential election?
Basic
13
Ṁ476
Dec 31
79%
Scott Alexander
71%
Holden Karnofsky
51%
Jesus of Nazareth
49%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
42%
Peter Singer
41%
God
41%
The Buddha
41%
A generic Democrat with 4+ years of political experience
35%
George Washington
33%
Aella
28%
Nick Bostrom
28%
A randomly selected US citizen
28%
A generic Republican with 4+ years of political experience
19%
Kamala Harris
11%
Joe Biden
1%
Donald Trump

High percent answer = Manifold users would vote for this person instead of themselves
Low Percent answer = Manifold would vote for themselves instead of this person

Will be resolved by polls for each option, with the second choice as 'Yourself right now'

Inspired by @strutheo 's market

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Ṁ1,000
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In an eyebrow-raising manifesto posted to an obscure corner of Reddit, the self-proclaimed "High Prophet of the All-Memeing Eye" announced a bold new venture: starting a cult with Taylor Swift as co-leader. The proposition? Pure sexual energy as the ultimate currency of devotion.

"Through the holy union of memes and the magnetic force of Taylor Swift's *Eras Tour,* we will birth a new era of enlightenment," the statement read. "Every breakup song will be a sacred hymn. Every TikTok trend, a scripture. And the *1989* re-release? That’s our genesis story."

Members are promised eternal glory (and backstage passes) if they dedicate themselves fully to the cause. Rituals include choreographed dances to *Shake It Off* under the full moon and crafting memes sharp enough to go viral. The ultimate goal? To channel the collective thirst of Swifties into a spiritual awakening that will “shatter the matrix and overthrow the lizard overlords.”

The cult already has its first doctrine: *We Are Never Getting Back Together* is now the official anthem for rejecting exes and embracing the Eye’s divine light. Taylor has yet to respond, but insiders claim she’s flattered—so

rt of.

@DougPolk

Tell you what, I won't report you to the mods for spam if you bet 1 mana on all of my markets

We got a deal?

@Qoiuoiuoiu

  • For context, a broad summary of my current philosophical and political beliefs would be:

    • Epistemics i.e. fundamentally what is true?: empiricism, rationalism, scientific method

    • Normative ethics i.e. fundamentally what is good?: moral realism, consequentialism, pluralist balance between negative-leaning utilitarianism and egoism

    • Applied ethics i.e. in practice what should we do as individuals to achieve goodness?: effective altruism

    • Politics i.e. in practice what system should society use to achieve goodness?

      • Economic politics i.e. system of production and distribution of resources and services: at least Nordic-style welfarism, possibly experimenting via charter cities with anarcho-communism (worker-owned democratically-controlled industry, decentralised planned economy with UBI)

      • Governmental politics i.e. system of leadership and law enforcement: proportional representation democracy for parliament, iterated universal nomination election for technocratic council of advisors, anti-authoritarianism (Nordic-style reformative/restorative justice, anti-censorship/propaganda, radical transparency/accountability of government)

      • Cultural politics i.e. system of attitude towards societal changes like religion, moral circle expansion, globalisation, and technology: hyper-progressivism, secularism, universal compassion (feminism, anti-racism, LGBT+ rights, animal rights, AI rights, alien rights), hyper-internationalism (world government, mostly open borders with harmful ideology vetting), techno-cautious (especially regarding x/s-risk technologies like AGI/ASI, WMDs, nanotech, brain upload emulation etc.)

@TheAllMemeingEye "Ice Ice Epistemics"

Yo, stop, collaborate, and listen,

Empiricism’s back with a rational mission,

Truth grabs a hold of me tightly,

Scientific method, shining brightly.

What’s good? Moral realism flow,

Consequentialism’s the path I know.

Balancing ego, utilitarian vibe,

Negative lean, but I keep it alive.

Altruism’s effective, I’m giving it my all,

Goodness spreads like a fireball.

Charter cities? Experiment wild,

Nordic-style welfarism makes me smile.

Democracy proportional, laws reformative,

Transparency reigns, no lies, normative.

Restorative justice, anti-censorship groove,

Radical accountability keeps us smooth.

Cultural progress? Bring it, we dare,

Rights for all—from animals to AI out there.

Techno-cautious but I keep the beat global,

World government dream, borders semi-open, noble.

If there’s a problem, yo, we’ll solve it,

Check out my plan while the world evolves it.

Ice Ice Philosophy!

This version translates your ideas into a rhythm, retaining the essence of your beliefs while keeping it light and lyrical!

ChatGPT can make mistak

@DougPolk go and make some mistakes, you live and you learn

@DougPolk Eminem would be proud 🫡

bought Ṁ5 NO

@Qoiuoiuoiu since I already added Jesus I'm assuming this is God the Father from the Old Testament?

[deleted]

bought Ṁ10 NO

Added Kamala since it's Joever, anyone got more suggestions? It's also just 10 mana if you want to add them yourself

Like the other market, options are considered to be eligible even if fictional, dead, term-limited, etc?

Yeah, anyone can be added, though personally I'd have a subjective preference for real living people so this market can help identify the best possible leaders

bought Ṁ10 NO

Feel free to add anyone you think has a reasonable chance of winning :)

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