☘️What will happen in March 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
49
610Ṁ7129
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
YES
A tesla catches fire as reported by news or tesla-fire.com
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Resolved
YES
Yoon Suk Yeol will stay president of South-Korea
Resolved
YES
Ayatollah Khamenei will be alive the whole month
Resolved
YES
Large Tech company announces layoffs
Resolved
YES
There will be an earthquake anywhere on earth measuring 6.8 or above on the moment magnitude scale.
Resolved
YES
SpaceX launches >11 rockets
Resolved
YES
usa politician pulicized visit to japan
Resolved
YES
A YouTube video specifically about marching, matches, mars, arches, or archery is uploaded and gets >1M views
Resolved
YES
the Two astronauts land alive on Earth
Resolved
YES
At least 3 users' comments on this market contain the word "rationalussy"
Resolved
YES
At least 5 users' comments on this market contain the word "rationalussy"
Resolved
NO
8.0+ magnitude earthquake
Resolved
NO
NASDAQ hits an all time high
Resolved
NO
web3isgoinggreat makes at least 20 posts this month
Resolved
NO
2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc
Resolved
NO
Weak AGI exists, as defined by the Metaculus market on the topic having resolved YES before the end of the month
Resolved
NO
Coup attempt in the United States
Resolved
NO
For the first time, weak AGI is declared to have been achieved by a majority of Manifold respondents in the monthly poll

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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@evan rationalussy is kinda a dead meme at this point, but 3 users is a pretty low threshold, though there's only 1 day left

@TheAllMemeingEye heretic. With the power of Rationalussy I shun thee

opened a Ṁ650 YES at 99.0% order

@TheAllMemeingEye Yeah, in retrospect it was kinda inevitable that at least three users would say rationalussy, given an incentive.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@MugaSofer But what if some users were to edit their comments to remove the word "rationalussy" moments before the deadline?

@spiderduckpig technically, the edit history is contained inside the comment box 🤓

sold Ṁ17 YES

@dgga Well, technically, your "Rationalussy" isn't the exact same as "rationalussy" either, so perhaps we only have 3...

@spiderduckpig perhaps you're right!

bought Ṁ25 YES

@spiderduckpig And with this final rationalussy, we have 5 non-negotiably.

@moozooh Oh it resolved a bit early, I was going to edit my comments lol

@TheAllMemeingEye shorts don't count, right?

bought Ṁ5 YES

@dgga I would count them

I'm not sure who added it, but weak AGI cannot be achieved for the first time in the monthly poll because it already was achieved in the December 2024 poll.

@SteveSokolowski it would be cool if you could make a graph of the AGI poll results over time

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