🌼What will happen in May 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
102
810Ṁ6220
Jun 1
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
99%
An open Manifold market about the Eurovision Song Contest has 100+ Traders
99%
A YouTube video specifically about Theresa May, James May, mayo(nnaise), Maya (people/artifacts), or mayors is uploaded and gets >1M views
99%
Xi Jingping is Alive on May 5th.
99%
at least one xkcd comic where there are no stick figures at all
98.6%
donald trump is alive for the entire month
98%
Three or more official Star Wars releases/announcements on May the 4th
96%
Matura exams in Poland
94%
A high school or college commencement speaker is protested by significant group of graduates, per reliable reporting
93%
Joe Biden is alive for the entire month
91%
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
87%
Starship Launch
78%
The S&P 500 closes the month higher than its month opening price
78%
large tech company announces layoffs
76%
Manchester City win the FA Cup Final
72%
50 or more EF2+ tornadoes in the continental US During May 2025.
71%
Boston Celtics lose a playoff series
59%
NFL, NBA, or MLB player arrested for DUI
48%
It's the hottest May on record (based on global average temperature)

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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@strutheo
https://sifted.eu/articles/beam-robotics-shuts-down

@strutheo huh?

@snazzlePop I think some of these were copied from last year's version, lol

@TheAllMemeingEye https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h333QY4ALGU

@100Anonymous does it count?

@100Anonymous The topic and viewcount fit but not the upload date

nevertheless I am very confident that @MugaSofer will soon supply a huge list of valid entries like every other month haha

@TheAllMemeingEye Oops, my bad.

That's oddly specific 🤔

@RedzoneITG since you are almost always alive every day between birth and death, this is effectively equivalent to "will not die before May 5th", which isn''t that oddly specific

bought Ṁ72 YES

@strutheo This should resolve yes:

bought Ṁ5 YES

This might happen https://manifold.markets/RZacDQ/yes-or-no-will-there-be-50-or-more#u6LdPlUt5Z

Francis ceases to be pope seems like it a no, not in May 2025.
But
"Francis is not pope" in May 2025 seems like it should be a clear yes.

NA'd. I am not sure I see why, but any reason is allowed.

@ChristopherRandles yeah I don't get why "Francis is not pope" resolved NA? Seems like a clear YES unless he comes back to life for the entirety of May.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@strutheo I'm going to guess no on this one

bought Ṁ10 NO

@ZaneMiller you never know, they might be resurrected! I think this shouldn't have resolved until May 1

(99% joking)

bought Ṁ30 NO

@TheAllMemeingEye Good market.

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bought Ṁ5 YES

@Quroe Thanks haha

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