Follow up from last years edition (https://manifold.markets/TheWabiSabi/what-will-happen-to-me-in-2024-add)
I will be 100% honest on all questions asked below to help you make the right bet.
Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria Clarification:
The outcome must involve having sex with a Tinder match.
The encounter occurs in a new city, indicating a partner that is not an ex.
Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cumulative Requirement:
The outcome must include having sex with three different people,
This must occur on three separate occasions throughout 2025.
1,000@Robincvgr above average. I run 3 times per week, I'm cycle 3~4 times a week, and walk when I can. 2 weeks ago my bicycle was hit by a bird while riding.
@SteveSokolowski feeling better and better. If this continues, I will resolve this as yes mid or end of April yes.
@traders not on the bingo card but started yesterday with allergen immunotherapy for house dust mites, will see if it helps in the next 2~3 years.
@TheWabiSabi ante toki 🔁:
ona li lon lipu musi ala ❌, taso mi open suno pini 🌅 e pona pi utala sijelo jaki 💉tawa pipi jaki tomo 🪳, ona li pona lon sike kama tu anu tu wan la 🗓️, mi lukin e ona 👀
If I were to attempt to subliminally teach you toki pona by responding to each of your comment updates with a translation (with emojis to help), would that be ok or would you get annoyed and block me?
Mi pana 🧑🏫 keneken ante toki 🔁 (keneken sitelin 🔣 tawa pali pona) tawa toki sin sina 🔔 e sona pi toki pona 💬 tawa sina la, ni li pona 🙂 anu sina li pilin ike 😠 li toki ala e mi 🤐?
@TheAllMemeingEye I'm getting interested now 😅 maybe will check it out this weekend and start decoding your message...
sina sama pipi jaki! toki pi lawa ike keneken pakala ala ala li ike a! toki mi li ike la, o toki e mi, mi ken pali e seme tawa pona?
@TheWabiSabi after the funeral, I went to the nearest Nike Outlet and I stumbled upon Lil' Kleine (Dutch Rapper)
@TheWabiSabi thinking about doing a small dose of LSD with my mother now I'm back home. Would be her first trip.
I think MDMA would be even better but either (or both!) sound great if you have a relationship that makes it possible.
Hi @traders
As promised, here’s some indication of the probability of my current options:
95% - Attending a funeral
My grandfather died last week, and I will attend his funeral tomorrow.
81% - Having sex with 3 different people
Currently dating 1–2 people, with whom I’ve had sex with one. Only looking for FWB after a long-term relationship. Want to have some fun this year.
80% - Getting vaccinated
Ordered my HPV vaccine last week, so I will probably get the jab at the end of next week.
80% - Getting a new job
Actively looking for a new job (had one interview yesterday and another just an hour ago). I was let go in Nov '24.
79% - Recovering from depression
Going to therapy every other week, practicing daily mindfulness, and running three times a week. Going out more and more, but my grandfather's passing is a small setback.
72% - Attending an Ayahuasca ceremony
Contacted two facilitators and currently looking for a nice group to join. It would be my first time.
69% - Getting a new house
Living at my parents' house now after the breakup. I will start looking for a new place once I have a new job.
63% - Going on a holiday alone
Something I’ve wanted to do for a long time. Looking into London or Seoul.
62% - Starting a new hobby
Not really into starting new hobbies, but I am trying a lot of new things now. My last new hobby was yoga (three years ago) and running (five months ago).
50% - Eating a shrimp
I do love some shrimp.
43% - Getting a new girlfriend
Not actively looking for a new girlfriend, but with the current economy, I’m open to it.
41% - Getting a game console
Looking into the new Switch 2.
36% - Making a viral social media post
Not really into social media anymore, but I do love photography and had a viral Tumblr blog that ended in a book deal.
34% - Losing or gaining weight (more than 5kg, now 72.8kg)
Lost 16kg around April in 2024. Happy with my weight now, currently at 73.4kg.
34% - Getting an STD
Never had one. I have no problem with a condom.
34% - Joining a new or different political party
I’m part of the Animal Party but would not rule out joining a second leftist party.
34% - Losing my Manifold streak
Losing a little bit of interest in Manifold, but still active. Love it as a news source. ;)
31% - Winning a competition/award
Not that competitive. Last award… I don't know. I’m more of a team player.
31% - Joining a sports team/club
Looking into a new yoga club near my parents' place, or maybe a running club, but I feel this town is too small/old-school for the level I’m looking for.
29% - Meeting a celebrity
Almost yearly.
28% - Getting a certification/degree
Not looking into a new degree, but I have an e-learning course for BHV (in-house emergency service staff) that I want to finish next month.
26% - Getting hearing aids
I’m losing hearing at the higher frequencies. I get it checked yearly, but I think I can still push hearing aids further down the line—maybe in the next two or three years.
26% - Starting a side business
Had three companies in the last 15 years. It all depends on whether I find a new job in the next three months.
26% - Getting back with my ex
We’re on good terms, but I don't think it would work out in the end. We both want different things.
24% - Getting COVID-19
Had it twice in the last five years. Still test when I’m sick.
24% - Attending a baby shower
Never been to one, don’t want to.
23% - Experiencing a natural disaster
Extreme rain two or three times in my life, but I’m not in any risk area (The Netherlands).
20% - Getting a new car
Got two new cars last year, but maybe getting another one this year as a company car with my new job.
20% - Getting a medical operation
Had six in the last three years, but I should be done now.
20% - Moving to a different city/country
Pretty high chance, but it also depends on my future job.
16% - Getting a new pet
I have two cats and one dog with my ex (they live at her place). I love animals, but I also like the fact that I’m free now.
16% - Developing a chronic health condition
I hope I don’t. I’m pretty healthy and do a lot of preventive care.
15% - Learning a new language
I speak Dutch, English, and a little French and German, but learning a new language is a lot of work for me, so I’m not really into that.
10% - Getting married/engaged
Please no, not looking for that at this moment.
9% - Attending a wedding
I’m 33 years old, so a lot of friends are getting married, but I don’t think I have any weddings planned for this year. Last one was two years ago.
7% - Experiencing war
Never have. I’ve been to the West Bank, but that’s it.
Btw, isn’t the HPV vaccination a series of 3 jabs? Don’t forget the schedule the other two! 😉
@TheWabiSabi I think it was 3 for me and they had to be spaced apart by some time, but I got mine over a decade ago. Good idea to check with your doc!
@TheWabiSabi Thanks for the really good detailed list :)
A few clarifying questions/comments:
What do you consider to be the differences between FWB and girlfriend/boyfriend?
What was the book resulting from the Tumblr blog? Are you still writing Tumblr blogs that could potentially become similarly viral?
How do you reconcile being in the Netherlands Animal Party (presumably promoting animal rights) with eating fried chicken and shrimp?
For the language learning option, would you consider learning Toki Pona? It's designed to be maximally simple, and thus literally the entire writing system, sound system, grammar, and vocabulary fit on a single sheet of paper (Toki Pona Cheat Sheet v2.pdf). It took me about 2 hours to reach slow typed conversational level. So far the current list of manifolders that I'm aware know it are: me, @MingCat , @Shelvacu , @Conflux , @wadimiusz , @soweliSon , and possibly @hecko , so there's no shortage of fun users to use it with. Fun message for you to try to decipher: "mi pini poka ala e sina; mi pali ala e ona, sina pilin ike; mi tawa weka ala; mi weka ala e sina"
@TheAllMemeingEye jan pona o, your syntax is off :( in the first (and repeated second) part, you seem to want to use "sina" as an object to the verb, but you don't use "e", so "sina" ends up being a modifier to "pini", i. e. "your". in the first part, the resulting meaning is technically something like [rot13] "v nz abg lbhe arneol svanyvgl". in the last part, "ala" modifies "sina" instead of "weka", i. e. [rot13] "V nz erzbivat gur aba-lbh", instead of "mi weka ala e sina".
if we were to correct only the syntax and not the phrasing, it would be something like "mi pini poka ala e sina, mi pini poka ala e sina, mi tawa weka ala, mi weka ala e sina".
UPD: I hid the English translations with rot13 to avoid spoilers
@wadimiusz haha thanks, I was being rushed to leave by a family member and didn't double-check, I've tried correcting it now
@TheAllMemeingEye My reply on the questions/comments:
What do you consider to be the differences between FWB and girlfriend/boyfriend? - I think as we start to become exclusive to each other or when I go to family gatherins, we go from FWB to partner.
What was the book resulting from the Tumblr blog? Are you still writing Tumblr blogs that could potentially become similarly viral? - I will not share the book here (as my personal name is on there, but I can DM it if you want). It was a photography book, and the Tumblr page is now in sleeper mode for years. I think I have a better change of going viral on someone else platform/social/podcast.
How do you reconcile being in the Netherlands Animal Party (presumably promoting animal rights) with eating fried chicken and shrimp? - Great question! I'm not sure how familiar you are with Dutch politics, but the PvdD (Animal Party) is not against meat. Even in a TV show (https://npo.nl/start/serie/ingelijst/seizoen-1/esther-ouwehand), the leader mentioned that you could be a member of the party even if you eat meat. However, they promote plant-based eating and aim to change what we consider a standard meal.
For me, pork and beef are worse options than chicken (when considering the environment and animal welfare). Shrimp are also less conscious than other animals. So I try to eat fish or meat a maximum of two days a week.
For the language learning option, would you consider learning Toki Pona? - I'm intrigued. If you speak or write it, what is the biggest advantage?
For me, pork and beef are worse options than chicken (when considering the environment and animal welfare). Shrimp are also less conscious than other animals. So I try to eat fish or meat a maximum of two days a week.
Fair enough, though not perfect, reduction is vastly better than total status quo, and I myself started with that for a few years before switching to full veganism.
From my perspective it's a bit of a difficult situation where most of the most mainstream western meats are each worse in different ways e.g. pork is worse for sentience, beef is worse for climate change, chicken is worse for size thus quantity, shrimp is vastly worse for size thus quantity etc. It also doesn't help that the lower something is on the sentience level, the more intense the acts of torture against them often are (e.g. lack of stunning before slaughter, or even lack of slaughter before butchering), in part due to fewer regulations and less public pressure.
As far as I can tell, the least bad mainstream option, though still horrific, might be tuna, because it's simultaneously lower on the sentience scale, is pretty big (thus a relatively low quantity are needed), and a lot of the time are wild fished (thus although their lives are still pretty horrific in the wild it's not 24-7 extreme torture like for factory farming, they contractually would've been likely to die in similarly terrible ways naturally, and the act of fishing potentially reduces the future population of suffering individuals rather than requiring new ones be made).
I'm intrigued. If you speak or write it, what is the biggest advantage?
Apologies in advance for the wall of text.
To start with, I think the benefits of learning any given regular language tend to be:
You can communicate and bond with a new population of people, either at all or if there was already a less fluent shared language then better so, useful for international work, making international friends, international travel, and possibly relocation.
You can consume artistic media created in that language, either at all or if there was already lower quality subs/dubs then better so, and you also have a larger audience for artistic media you create if you translate it.
You gain respect and prestige from people you meet for putting in the effort to learn it, both among speakers and non-speakers, plausibly giving a slight edge in socialisation, dating, job hunting, and networking.
Now obviously there are too many languages in the world to learn them all, so it makes sense to prioritise the ones with the greatest benefits per effort put in. In my opinion the ones that are worth it are:
High effort (as in a few months to years), high reward:
Natural languages with vast numbers of first and second language speakers across huge regions of the world (e.g. English, Spanish, Mandarin Chinese etc.).
The primary natural language of places you are specifically planning to routinely visit / permanently live in.
Low effort (as in a few hours), mid reward:
Rough basics of writing systems of significant languages and language groups (e.g. Latin alphabet, Cyrillic alphabet, Arabic abjad, Devanagari abugida, Hiragana/Katakana syllabary etc.), allowing you to understand written loanwords, cognates, and personal/place names.
Alternative alphabets for signalling in specific situations (e.g. NATO spelling alphabet for verbally spelling out words over bad audio connection, international phonetic alphabet for conveying the pronunciations of words, morse code for when only able to communicate via a single variable etc.).
Medium-size rapidly-growing speaker number and hyper-easy international auxiliary languages (Toki Pona is the only example I know of, Esperanto is easy but not hyper easy, Mini is hyper easy but near nonexistent etc.).
As you can see, Toki Pona is in this last subcategory, admittedly with less strong (but very much non zero) advantages than major world natural languages, but so ridiculously quick to learn that the efficiency trade-off is still very much in its favour. Like natural languages, there is a population who speaks it, there is artistic media exclusively produced in it, and there are people who will respect you for it.
One last thing, I personally believe it is admirable for people to overcome societal coordination problems by leading by example (similar to Kant's categorical imperative, Confucius' golden rule, Jesus' great commandments, Gandhi's "be the change you want to see in the world" etc.), and I think using hyper-easy international auxiliary languages like Toki Pona is a simple example of this, it would be great if everyone did it, so we should do it.
Thank you for coming to my TED Talk lol