🌭What will happen in July 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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Plus
128
Ṁ85k
resolved Aug 3
Resolved
YES
United States women's soccer team wins all three group stage matches
Resolved
YES
Bitcoin reaches $60K usd
Resolved
YES
at least one xkcd comic with no stick figures in it
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Resolved
YES
Tadej Pogacar wins Tour de France
Resolved
YES
France selected to host 2030 Winter Olympics
Resolved
YES
Salt Lake City selected to host 2034 Winter Olympics
Resolved
YES
100F temperature recorded in DC
Resolved
YES
UK general election
Resolved
YES
supreme court issues decision in trump immunity
Resolved
YES
noam chomsky AND jimmy carter alive at end of month
Resolved
YES
trump announces vice president running mate
Resolved
YES
Kamala Harris says COCONUT or JD Vance says COUCH in the last week
Resolved
YES
Major or controversial gaffe during the Olympic opening ceremonies, as judged by chris (strutheo)
Resolved
YES
large tech company announces layoffs
Resolved
YES
The Netherlands get a new government
Resolved
N/A
tesla catches fire as reported by tesla-fire.com
Resolved
N/A
At least 10 answers in this market resolve YES
Resolved
NO
Hottest July on record

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ5 YES

Julia Galef mentions Julius (Caesar), Joule (scientist or unit), Jews, or lies on social media

Guys there's VAST profits to be made if someone can get her to mention one of these on her xitter in the next 24 hours https://x.com/juliagalef

@Pepethecock @strutheo
A senator IS a Congressman or Congresswoman. The Senate is a body of the Congress.

But House representatives more normally called Congressman or Congresswoman. Here where we have "congressperson or governor" it seems more likely to include senators. If it just said congressperson, I would be more unsure, but I am sure there are other people here with a lot more expertise than me.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senator-bob-menendez-resigns-after-corruption-conviction-2024-07-23/

bought Ṁ2 YES

I don't get the issue here. Of course Menendez was a sitting congressperson. Is it that resignation is not the same as retirement (because he's running again)?

Did we have running again issue before with someone else? How was that settled?

In this case, running again as independent but considered a long shot. Seems likely to be leaving 20 Aug so at least a short 'gap' before running again and the 'gap' could well become permanent. Not sure if any of that affects what happened last time decision.

Yeah idk how to judge the menendez one I'll let the person who added option decide. Or mods can na

The person deleted their account, so @mods gotta help if you can't decide. To me it's a YES fwiw.

If he's running again, then he's not retired. Retirement and resignation are different concepts, one means the end of your career as a whole, and the other means the end of your current job.

I don't see any media describing it as him having announced his retirement.

Of course if it's a long shot and he isn't re-elected, then he may announce his retirement. Or not - maybe he'll continue a political career is some sense.

(a remaining ambiguity is whether "retirement from politics" or more general retirement is relevant, but so far we don't have an announcement of either)

I think this is a NO, but won't resolve just yet.

If there was a decision to say someone leaving politics for a different job counts then I think the Aug-Nov gap and likelihood of longshot independent run being unsuccessful should mean this resolves yes. It is possible to retire then start working again and the nature of politics reduces the difference between resigning and retiring. If the previous decision was it doesn't count then I would agree that this shouldn't count.

I think it has come up before but I cannot recall details.

I don't know of precedent, but am interested if anyone can find it.

I think what's relevant is intent - if someone announces they're retiring and then later returns to politics (or attempts to), that would still count as retiring despite changing their mind later.

But if someone leaves one political job, without announcing that they're "retiring", then that would not count as retirement even if it results in an identical gap in their resume.

I don't think resigning counts as announcing a retirement if you're running again, yeah, although not 100% sure

I agree, he resigned, he didn’t retire.

@strutheo This resolved YES but I don’t see any report on Tesla-fire.com, which seems pretty clearly stated as the resolution criteria.

we made a note to no longer use this website because they are slow to update, all the other months were renamed to 'tesla fire or mainstream news' if a mod wants to na they can @mods

reposted

@strutheo In light of the culture war cries following the misinterpretation of the Feast of the Gods as a Da Vinci painting of a former carpenter having supper, and the subsequent public apology issued by the International Olympic Committee, should this resolve YES?

hard to say bc i was also thinking that no matter what, the conservatives would have complained about SOMETHING. and idk if these count as gaffes or just bad judgement ahead of time

The announcers also introduced South Korea as North Korea during the boat parade an caused outrage. Will that count?

The South Korean sports ministry said it planned to lodge a "strong complaint with France on a government level" over the embarrassing gaffe.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmj2r1403jpo.amp

oh thats true, that def counts

@Lorelai Referring to Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico?

bought Ṁ22 NO

@strutheo Resolves NO?

bought Ṁ100 YES

The upside-down flag gaffe might also cause @strutheo to resolve YES, which is why I put in some YES too.

bought Ṁ25 NO

The flag issue is actually something that's extremely easy to mess up. When a flag is raised like this, the clips are attached while it is still folded up because it is irreverent for a flag to touch the ground..

They are required to use the same flag that has been passed between cities since the 1920s, so they couldn't just have multiple flags that were folded the correct way before the ceremony. Someone had to fold it under pressure before it was carried by the masked man and the correct folding method likely slipped his or her mind.

And, the design of this flag doesn't make it obvious which side is up from the side colors, like the French flag would.

It's actually quite amazing that after what happened, the two gaffes are trivial issues like this. Celine Dion sang from a position hundreds of feet off the ground, transmitting audio 3 miles away, to music being played by an orchestra 0.5 miles away at the same time a pianist is playing next to her, and somehow the entire river was synchronized despite how slow sound is.

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