⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2024? (16 DONE)
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155
Ṁ68kJan 1
46%
next version of Chat GPT (4.5 or 5) releases to the general userbase
34%
Manifold (the company) announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc
29%
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
27%
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
27%
Rust (game) adds pets to the official servers
27%
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
26%
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
25%
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
22%
Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage
22%
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
22%
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
19%
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
16%
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users
16%
Manifold reaches 12,000 Monthly active users
12%
Twitter gets a new CEO
8%
Israel and Hamas announce an end to immediate hostilities (not just a temporary ceasefire)
7%
2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken
6%
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
5%
the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses before EOY
5%
Bitcoin BTC drops below $30K USD
The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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next version of Chat GPT (4.5 or 5) releases to the general userbase
@chris if they call it 4.5 or 5 ill resolve yes, but not if it is just a small improvement on 4 itself
@strutheo How about if they call it something completely new (new naming scheme)
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
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