πŸ—“οΈ2024 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (71 DONE)
βž•
Plus
84
αΉ€28k
Jan 1
72%
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
80%
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
83%
windows 12 announcement is made
84%
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
86%
this market reaches 100 traders
86%
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
87%
Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage
89%
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
89%
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
91%
earthquake 8.0 or larger in the world
91%
Jimmy Carter passes away
92%
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
92%
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
93%
this market reaches 250 traders
94%
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
94%
the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses
96%
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube
96%
this market reaches 10k individual TRADES
97%
this market reaches 500 traders
97%
Ukraine and Russia announce a temporary ceasefire

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)

    ...

  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)


Any events that do not happen by EOY 2024 will be resolved 100% YES.

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@strutheo Thanksgiving should have resolved by now.

@strutheo my first thought was of the podracer, https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Cy_Yunga

@strutheo Do you have one of these for 2025?

@jks working on one :)

@strutheo submit any suggestions you have

bought αΉ€1 NO

@strutheo the Dodgers did the entire world a favor and beat the Yankees.

bought αΉ€10 NO

@strutheo He uploaded a new video earlier today

Looks like
61 Nobel peace prize winner announced 11 Oct
https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/articles/nobel-peace-prize-2024-announcement
the ceremony is not til Dec but it is announcement that counts.
62 Rivals of Aether 2 released 23 Oct
https://store.steampowered.com/app/2217000/Rivals_of_Aether_II/

Other could slip in earlier than these so could be higher but probably should expecting at least these to happen:
63 First game of MLB world series 26th Oct
64/5 Halloween 31 Oct
64/5 Last game of MLB world series 30th Oct - 3 Nov
66+? Election called if not tight 6th Nov
67+? Rookie of the year mid Nov
68+? Cy Young mid Nov
69+? Thanksgiving 28 Nov
70+? Boxing day 26 Dec

bought αΉ€7 NO

Edited - didn't see the list below.
Up to 58% is resolved, and 59 and 60 need to be resolved.
Paging @strutheo

@DanielTilkin been struggling with the api/slowness all day

bought αΉ€75 YES

@strutheo No worries, just wanted to make sure you saw it.

sold αΉ€0 YES

@strutheo

I'm doing my part!

@strutheo
Iphone release and frostpunk 2 both on 20 Sept.
I believe frostpunk 2 was 10am PDT (saw a countdown time) and while I don't know but would guess iphones could be collected earlier. Store opening time EST?

@ChristopherRandles yea i am counting iphone first

opened a αΉ€5 NO at 57% order

@strutheo
So 55 iphone
56 Frostpunl 2
and
57 Hurricane John 4th pacific hurricane
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/232049.shtml

@strutheo
55 iphone Sept 20
56 Frostpunk 2 Sept 20
57 Hurricane John 4th pacific hurricane Sept 27
58 Second solar eclipse Oct 2

or is there anything else before these?
(I assume Rivals of Aether 2 early access beta weekend from September 27-29 doesn't count)

@strutheo
55 iphone Sept 20
56 Frostpunk 2 Sept 20
57 Hurricane John 4th pacific hurricane Sept 27
58 Second solar eclipse Oct 2
59 EOD Leif Erikson day Oct 9
60 SpaceX 100 launches Oct 15

or is there anything else before these?
(I assume Rivals of Aether 2 early access beta weekend from September 27-29 doesn't count)

@strutheo So resolvable we have:

52% 3rd Pacific hurricane, Hone, 25 Aug

Iphone reveal 10th, but officially releases 20 Sept, so not yet?

53% 4th Atlantic hurricane, Francine 10 September
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al06/al062024.public_a.009.shtml?

bought αΉ€1 YES

looks like frostpunk is also sept 20 but i will count iphone first since they have preorders and such open, and frostpunk wont release until later in the day possible

bought αΉ€2 NO

@strutheo ^ hasn't been resolved.:
East Pacific Carlotte & Gilma and Central Pacific Hone
Just noting this again from Aug 24th before iphone release.

reposted

over halfway done!

jective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS range from 61-68 kt.  Based on these subjective and 
objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is bumped up to 
65 kt, making Gilma the second hurricane of the 2024 East Pacific 
hurricane season.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/210849.shtml

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