🗓️2024 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (23 DONE)
the next Bitcoin Halving happens
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
manifest 2024 ends
Rabbit R1 ships and is confirmed in consumer hands
First Apple Event of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
First Nintendo direct of the year
Mr Beat reaches 1M subscribers (the history youtuber)
Trump announces Vice President running mate
Elden Ring DLC Releases
CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
Llama 3 released to the general userbase
World of Goo 2 releases

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)


  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)

Any events that do not happen by EOY 2024 will be resolved 100% YES.

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halving any day now

@strutheo early morning UTC on Saturday (something like 03:00), but yeah, it'll definitely be the next one to happen.

the first Solar eclipse of the year

Eclipse over


april bump

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

This morning's Penumbral Lunar Eclipse is well and truly over.

CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)

sorry that was audio only

Reddit IPOs

Reddit IPO so 21 done

@phenomist uhoh that puts it before the wikipedia one so maybe i just NA instead of trying to salvage it... sorry again haha.

bought Ṁ30 three or more teslas... NO
a second tesla catches fire as reported by tesla-fire.com

q: why was this n/a'ed? (I see the site isn't really updating anymore at least.) And if it's valid, should the "third tesla catches fire" event also be n/a'ed?

@phenomist oh good catch i will NA that too

yes the site is less reliable than i thought when i first made the market, ill think of a more fun option

@strutheo or i will define that one to be 3 tesla fires reported by news/organizations

English Wikipedia reaches 6.8M ARTICLES or more
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #85
bought Ṁ11 GenoSamuel releases ... NO

Released on 17th!

"This will be my final Chris Chan doc for a good long while, possibly a year or longer."


17 done already! some close ones too

Mr Beast hits 245M Youtube Subscribers

Reached before end of day 15 March

24 Falcon 9 plus starship launch today makes 25 so that can resolve.

As of 11 March, there have been 24 launches in 2024.

English Wikipedia reaches 60M PAGES or more
bought Ṁ30 English Wikipedia re... NO

Am I misunderstanding this option, or is this already done?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics gives 60.2M pages

@phenomist it is done! good observation , lets try to figure out the exact day to see if i misresolved the last one

@strutheo it passed on feb 20th at the latest, and no earlier than feb 7th

if this is unable to be pinpointed so i can reresolve anything that came before, ill just NA and make another

@phenomist ty for investigating i will check this tonight

@strutheo ok that puts it back before #7 so im just going to make a new one, oops!

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