🗓️2024 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (23 DONE)
62
1.8K
10K
2025
24%
the next Bitcoin Halving happens
25%
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
26%
manifest 2024 ends
26%
Rabbit R1 ships and is confirmed in consumer hands
28%
First Apple Event of the year
29%
Last day of the NFL draft
30%
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
32%
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
32%
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
33%
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
33%
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
33%
First Nintendo direct of the year
34%
Mr Beat reaches 1M subscribers (the history youtuber)
35%
Trump announces Vice President running mate
37%
Elden Ring DLC Releases
37%
CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)
39%
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
40%
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
40%
Llama 3 released to the general userbase
40%
World of Goo 2 releases

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)

    ...

  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)


Any events that do not happen by EOY 2024 will be resolved 100% YES.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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reposted

halving any day now

@strutheo early morning UTC on Saturday (something like 03:00), but yeah, it'll definitely be the next one to happen.

the first Solar eclipse of the year

Eclipse over

reposted

april bump

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

This morning's Penumbral Lunar Eclipse is well and truly over.
https://twitter.com/DavidBflower/status/1772191952823349334

CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)

sorry that was audio only

Reddit IPOs

Reddit IPO so 21 done

@phenomist uhoh that puts it before the wikipedia one so maybe i just NA instead of trying to salvage it... sorry again haha.

bought Ṁ30 three or more teslas... NO
a second tesla catches fire as reported by tesla-fire.com

q: why was this n/a'ed? (I see the site isn't really updating anymore at least.) And if it's valid, should the "third tesla catches fire" event also be n/a'ed?

@phenomist oh good catch i will NA that too

yes the site is less reliable than i thought when i first made the market, ill think of a more fun option

@strutheo or i will define that one to be 3 tesla fires reported by news/organizations

English Wikipedia reaches 6.8M ARTICLES or more
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #85
bought Ṁ11 GenoSamuel releases ... NO

Released on 17th!

"This will be my final Chris Chan doc for a good long while, possibly a year or longer."

reposted

17 done already! some close ones too

Mr Beast hits 245M Youtube Subscribers

Reached before end of day 15 March

24 Falcon 9 plus starship launch today makes 25 so that can resolve.

As of 11 March, there have been 24 launches in 2024.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2024

English Wikipedia reaches 60M PAGES or more
bought Ṁ30 English Wikipedia re... NO

Am I misunderstanding this option, or is this already done?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics gives 60.2M pages

@phenomist it is done! good observation , lets try to figure out the exact day to see if i misresolved the last one

@strutheo it passed on feb 20th at the latest, and no earlier than feb 7th

if this is unable to be pinpointed so i can reresolve anything that came before, ill just NA and make another

@phenomist ty for investigating i will check this tonight

@strutheo ok that puts it back before #7 so im just going to make a new one, oops!

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