⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2024? (12 DONE)
144
60k
2025
98%
Earth Defense Force 6 releases
97%
Elden Ring DLC Releases
97%
Trump announces Vice President running mate
91%
new apple iphone releases
63%
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
54%
Manifold (the company) announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc
50%
Skate 4 releases
35%
next version of Chat GPT (4.5 or 5) releases to the general userbase
33%
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
28%
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
28%
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
28%
Rust (game) adds pets to the official servers
27%
Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage
27%
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
25%
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
23%
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users
22%
Manifold reaches 12,000 Monthly active users
21%
Twitter gets a new CEO
20%
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
19%
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

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bought Ṁ100 Earth Defense Force ... YES

earth defense force 6 release date - july 25 announced

bought Ṁ250 Answer #d8e88e86ab05 YES

Hades 2 is out this morning!

seem like quite a lot of unboxings, so I think this can resolve

bought Ṁ200 Answer #39c981c92e63 YES

This should resolve YES:
https://llama.meta.com/llama3/

bought Ṁ2,700 Answer #9e04632b8323 YES

reached

reposted

april bump

next version of Chat GPT (4.5 or 5) releases to the general userbase

If OpenAI releases a major successor to GPT-4, but it is not called GPT-5, will this resolve YES?

@chris if they call it 4.5 or 5 ill resolve yes, but not if it is just a small improvement on 4 itself

bought Ṁ100 Answer #ba098a31b073 NO

@strutheo How about if they call it something completely new (new naming scheme)

reddit IPO is 7th

bought Ṁ20 Answer #7be5b9eaa869 YES

6/20 complete now

Over 6.8M

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

After 85 "This will be my final Chris Chan doc for a good long while, possibly a year or longer."

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

In the world? Does that mean an Ioquake could qualify? Or is that ruled out by using term earthquake? Anyway it is not likely that we get a measurement. So really wondering if this should say on Earth rather than in the world.

@ChristopherRandles world = earth here lol

bought Ṁ2,000 Answer #dead0a353482 YES

here's.... ANOTHER ONE

reposted

bump for an update

@ChristopherRandles i was expecting the news to report on it like last year. honestly im down to NA/change it if this is vague or ongoing, i needed a 40th answer but it isnt the most fun one.

@strutheo
SV Nagambie - en route between Tangier to Cascais. Interaction about 25nm south-west of Cascais on Feb 20 at 1pm. 40 minutes of rudder-bumping, steering still intact, and haven’t dived on it yet so don’t know if there is damage. 3 orcas - 2 juvenile 1 adult.

Took sails down, shut off depth sounder, motored tight circles in reverse in high rpm. That seemed to end the interaction. Started up again and they returned immediately. Repeated the process, and then continued for 20 minutes to be sure they were gone.

With lots of info like this available probably getting less serious because skippers know what to do and less newsworthy

Orca interactions (158) how many do you need to say it is ongoing?

Elden Ring DLC Releases
bought Ṁ100 Elden Ring DLC Releases YES

Currently scheduled June 21st

bought Ṁ2,750 Answer #23ae8478351e YES

11 Feb 2024 fatal incident is listed twice at case numbers 230 and 231.

@ChristopherRandles yes they corrected it thanks

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