⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2024? (16 DONE)
➕
Plus
165
Ṁ77k
Jan 1
10%
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
10%
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
10%
next version of Chat GPT (4.5 or 5) releases to the general userbase
9%
Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage
9%
Rust (game) adds pets to the official servers
9%
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
8%
Manifold (the company) announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc
6%
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
6%
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
6%
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
5%
the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses before EOY
5%
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
5%
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
4%
Twitter gets a new CEO
4%
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
3%
Manifold reaches 12,000 Monthly active users
3%
2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken
2%
Israel and Hamas announce an end to immediate hostilities (not just a temporary ceasefire)
2%
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users
1.5%
Tom Scott's 'this video hax X views' video reaches 80M views

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@strutheo 25 Aug 2022

^ ?

Yeah I know, but it didn't mention steam. Anyway are you resolving it as 25 July 2024?

Oh woops. Yes I meant steam. Yes that day

@strutheo You said yes, but not resolved for a while.

reposted

releases in 2-3 days

bought Ṁ100 YES

earth defense force 6 release date - july 25 announced

bought Ṁ250 YES

Hades 2 is out this morning!

seem like quite a lot of unboxings, so I think this can resolve

bought Ṁ200 YES

This should resolve YES:
https://llama.meta.com/llama3/

bought Ṁ2,700 YES

reached

reposted

april bump

If OpenAI releases a major successor to GPT-4, but it is not called GPT-5, will this resolve YES?

@chris if they call it 4.5 or 5 ill resolve yes, but not if it is just a small improvement on 4 itself

bought Ṁ100 NO

@strutheo How about if they call it something completely new (new naming scheme)

i think 4o is .5-like enough for this to resolve yes, at least when the voice modality is made available

reddit IPO is 7th

bought Ṁ20 YES

6/20 complete now

Over 6.8M

After 85 "This will be my final Chris Chan doc for a good long while, possibly a year or longer."

In the world? Does that mean an Ioquake could qualify? Or is that ruled out by using term earthquake? Anyway it is not likely that we get a measurement. So really wondering if this should say on Earth rather than in the world.

@ChristopherRandles world = earth here lol

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules