⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2024? (16 DONE)
171
11kṀ91k
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
YES
A tesla catches fire as reported by tesla-fire.com
Resolved
YES
Mr Beast hits 250M Youtube Subscribers
Resolved
YES
Sweden joins NATO
Resolved
YES
English Wikipedia reaches 6.8M articles or more
Resolved
YES
Reddit IPOs
Resolved
YES
Bitcoin BTC reaches $50K USD or more
Resolved
YES
A second Tesla fire in 2024 as reported by tesla-fire.com or other verified mainstream news
Resolved
YES
Elden Ring DLC Releases
Resolved
YES
Trump announces Vice President running mate
Resolved
YES
Rabbit R1 ships and is in consumer hands
Resolved
YES
Earth Defense Force 6 releases on steam
Resolved
YES
new apple iphone releases
Resolved
YES
Neuralink trial with a human
Resolved
YES
Foamstars releases
Resolved
YES
Hades 2 releases
Resolved
YES
Llama 3 released to the general userbase
Resolved
N/A
Instance of a whale or other cetacean attacking a boat/yacht
Resolved
NO
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
Resolved
NO
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
Resolved
NO
Skate 4 releases

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

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@strutheo 25 Aug 2022

^ ?

Yeah I know, but it didn't mention steam. Anyway are you resolving it as 25 July 2024?

Oh woops. Yes I meant steam. Yes that day

@strutheo You said yes, but not resolved for a while.

reposted

releases in 2-3 days

bought Ṁ100 YES

earth defense force 6 release date - july 25 announced

bought Ṁ250 YES

Hades 2 is out this morning!

seem like quite a lot of unboxings, so I think this can resolve

bought Ṁ200 YES

This should resolve YES:
https://llama.meta.com/llama3/

bought Ṁ2,700 YES

reached

reposted

april bump

If OpenAI releases a major successor to GPT-4, but it is not called GPT-5, will this resolve YES?

@chris if they call it 4.5 or 5 ill resolve yes, but not if it is just a small improvement on 4 itself

bought Ṁ100 NO

@strutheo How about if they call it something completely new (new naming scheme)

i think 4o is .5-like enough for this to resolve yes, at least when the voice modality is made available

reddit IPO is 7th

bought Ṁ20 YES

6/20 complete now

Over 6.8M

After 85 "This will be my final Chris Chan doc for a good long while, possibly a year or longer."

In the world? Does that mean an Ioquake could qualify? Or is that ruled out by using term earthquake? Anyway it is not likely that we get a measurement. So really wondering if this should say on Earth rather than in the world.

@ChristopherRandles world = earth here lol

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