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MANIFOLD
🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (12/100 DONE)
207
Ṁ20kṀ42k
2120
13%
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
14%
ChatGPT 6 releases
15%
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
16%
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
17%
Sagrada Familia Church completed
18%
Shrek 5 releases
19%
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
20%
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
20%
Putin no longer in power in Russia
20%
a third Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
21%
One piece manga ends
21%
Skibidi Toilet ends
22%
a USA president impeached again
23%
Half Life 3 releases
24%
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
24%
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
24%
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
25%
Human walks on moon again
26%
Trump Dies
26%
1300 Pokemon Released

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)

    ...

  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)

If there is only one unresolved answer left, it will be resolved to 100% YES even if that event does not actually happen, since we could we waiting for a very long time.

If there is a renumbering or new product (eg. the next Civilization game after 6 is named something else) I'll update the answers the best I can in the spirit of the question, a lot will change over 100+ years.

If an option becomes impossible, ask and I'll try to clarify in the answer text. If it cannot be done in a good way, we'll NA that option.

For the future mods that have to deal with this good luck.

  • Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Options related to Monthly Active Users (MAU) are being removed from the market due to changes in the relevant statistics.

  • Update 2025-10-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "USA discontinues or changes penny coin": This will resolve when penny production ceases, which is expected to occur in early 2026 when the remaining penny blanks run out.

  • Update 2025-10-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "USA discontinues or changes penny coin": This will resolve when penny production ceases, which is expected to occur in early 2026 when the remaining penny blanks run out.

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Sagrada Família - Wikipedia was finished on February 20, 2026, reaching a height of 172.5 meters (566 feet) and making it the world's tallest church. Pope Leo XIV officially blessed and inaugurated the completed Tower of Jesus Christ on June 10, 2026, coinciding with the centenary of architect Antoni Gaudí's death. [1, 2]

The main structural phase of Barcelona’s Sagrada Família - Wikipedia was finished on February 20, 2026, reaching a height of 172.5 meters (566 feet) and making it the world's tallest church. Pope Leo XIV officially blessed and inaugurated the completed Tower of Jesus Christ on June 10, 2026, coinciding with the centenary of architect Antoni Gaudí's death.

But maybe that isn't fully complete?

The Spire Interior (2027–2028): Decorative and internal work inside the Tower of Jesus Christ, including an interior sculpture of the Agnus Dei, will continue over the next two years. [1, 2]

The Glory Façade (Estimated ~2034): Construction on the church's main south entrance began in mid-2025 and is expected to take another decade. [1, 2]

The Grand Staircase (Unresolved): Gaudí's original plan for a massive entrance bridge requires demolishing nearby residential blocks. This remains a highly contested local issue and is currently tied up in legal disputes with city residents.

So structural completion or more? Internal decoration might never complete there might always be more or renovations or new plans?

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 13% order

@strutheo
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)

merger to form XAI meant Elon was CEO of XAI in 2025 and then SpaceX acquisition in Feb 2026 Elon CEO again

bought Ṁ10 NO

You gota be kidding me, people who think this has more than a 0% chance of happening only after a crewed mission to Phobos!

@strutheo Who here volenteers to spend 7 days (3.5 there and 3.5 on the way back) feeling the constant weight of 1g of acceleration on your body, while experiencing the ultimate cabin fever experience?

The Jeddah tower is expected to be completed in 2028, and will be taller than the Burj Khalifa before completion, also bear in mind that the top part of the Khalifa is a structure but not a building. However the Jeddah tower is also Saudi, a part of the world famous at this point for excessively (impossibly) ambitious construction projects that consequently never get finished.

Sagrada Familia – Recent plans for 2026, probably will take longer, could take as long as early 2030s.

bought Ṁ12 NO

Nvidia became the first $5 trillion market cap company, it's since fallen a little: https://www.axios.com/2025/10/29/nvidia-5-trillion

bought Ṁ40 NO

@strutheo I believe this has happened. I'm struggling to find an official Treasury source that has confirmed that pennies are no longer being produced as of right now, but there are many articles about the Treasury stating it had placed its last order for pennies in May '25, and my local grocery store had a sign out yesterday stating that pennies were in shortage due to no longer being produced.

@RedzoneITG i see:

Those blanks, which are manufactured into pennies, will run out in early 2026, at which point penny production will cease.

bought Ṁ1 YES

@strutheo That's what all the articles from May '25 say, but recent developments lead me to believe that this may have already happened. example: https://www.inc.com/bruce-crumley/the-penny-shortage-is-adding-up-frustration-among-small-retailers/91253705

It's probably fair to wait until we get an official announcement that all US mints have stopped penny production, but the combination of the Treasury's May announcement with the current reports of businesses now lacking in pennies made me think there was enough evidence for a possible resolution here,

@RedzoneITG will keep an eye out

@strutheo This can resolve

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 69% order

I have green eyes and there's a non-zero chance I could become the president so watch out

The Pope one can resolve to 6% — Pope Leo XIV has been popified.

removing the MAU ones because stats have changed.

@strutheo By American copyright law? It seems at least Love Me Do entered the public domain in the EU in 2013.

@strutheo Released Feb. 11, resolves 5%

reposted

This is one of my favorite markets, 4/100 events done so far.

bought Ṁ500 NO

@strutheo Bitcoin has hit 100k

@strutheo Mario 64 has a 120 star speedrun in 1:35:28

https://www.speedrun.com/sm64

120 star just hit

shrek 5 just announced for 2026 some time

apparently likely to happen some time after the US adds the 52nd state

bought Ṁ10 NO

Haha, I'll arb that