🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order?
159
1.8K
18K
2120
4%
Sweden joins NATO
5%
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
6%
First $100B revenue media franchise
10%
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
10%
Human runs official marathon under 2h
10%
Civilization 7 releases
11%
Shrek 5 releases
12%
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
13%
Death Stranding 2 releases
15%
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
16%
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
17%
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
18%
One piece manga ends
18%
Another MLB perfect game pitched
21%
Sagrada Familia Church completed
21%
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
22%
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
23%
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
23%
Skibidi Toilet ends
24%
Manifold reaches 40K MAU

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)

    ...

  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)

If there is only one unresolved answer left, it will be resolved to 100% YES even if that event does not actually happen, since we could we waiting for a very long time.

If there is a renumbering or new product (eg. the next Civilization game after 6 is named something else) I'll update the answers the best I can in the spirit of the question, a lot will change over 100+ years.

If an option becomes impossible, ask and I'll try to clarify in the answer text. If it cannot be done in a good way, we'll NA that option.

For the future mods that have to deal with this good luck.

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@strutheo What's the licensing agreement look like for, "Coolfold?"

@KeenenWatts haha you can dm me, anything in the true spirit of coolfold can use the #coolfold tag (maybe not be an official CoolFold challenge though)

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looking like sweden might be the first one!

@strutheo does anything which hasn't happened by 2120 resolve 100%, or will this market be extended?

@DanielTilkin im fine with it going on forever, thats for another generation to decide tbh

Olympics hosted in Japan again

@strutheo This could be summer or winter olympics, right? I assume things like the Youth Olympic Games don't count for this?

@DanielTilkin either summer or winter, no youth wont count

death stranding 2 trailer just dropped - looking at a 2025 release date

Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)

Assuming if Twitter ceases operations with Yaccarino at the helm, and never gets another CEO, this would count. Or if she leaves, and the CEO role never filled for some reason. Maybe Elon installs his brother as Grand Poobah.

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i'm going to take a snapshot of how this looks 1 month after creation, get your adjustments in by eom

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cool market

First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)

Clarify “Asian”? Would Vivek count? Would Kamala?

@lalaithion thanks for pointing out - meant East asian (neither would count afaik)

bought Ṁ10 of First asian USA pres... NO

@strutheo What about a hypothetical Filipino or Vietnamese president?

@lalaithion you know what get back to me when one is running lol. might just poll the site on their definition of 'asian' when the time comes

bought Ṁ25 of Burj Khalifa record ... YES

@strutheo A poll could be valuable. I, for one, don’t see why Vivek or Kamala wouldn’t fall under “Asian” without further qualifiers.

@jks valid ok, we'll change it to 'first asian president as judged by manifold'

@strutheo I think I'm too late to the party, but... using self-identification is undoubtedly nicer to people, which is in and of itself a reason to use it. Furthermore, it might also be easier and more practical.

@BrunoParga also a good idea!

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Check out @Ernie 's new 📄estimate sheet for the CoolFold 100 Challenge!

bought Ṁ150 of The Beatles music en... YES

Hey guys, you can use this sheet make your estimates better: google sheet which you can copy

  1. put in your estimates of the year for each claim

  2. then use that to generate what the price will be if you are right

  3. then update the actual prices

  4. then you can find mispriced markets from your pov

  5. you can bet on them

  6. although you may be waiting a long time for things far in the future to pay off, and also paying a premium

@Ernie I'm honored <3

A lot of these don't actually time/date prediction markets, or even boolean "will it happen by year X" versions

@Ernie i thought outside the box

@strutheo oh yeah, i'm saying, now we should create those. The interactions still wouldn't be simple ofc.

@Ernie ooh yeah someone should go for it, feel free to make markets for any of these. maybe in the future there will be a ui change that allows linking of them together

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