How many launches will there be before Starship is recovered (3-13)
9
170Ṁ215
2033
68%
chance

Resolves to ((num launches - 3) * 10)%, including the launch that the recovery happens on.

3 launches - 0%

4 launches - 10%

5 launches - 20%

6 launches - 30%

7 launches - 40%

8 launches - 50%

9 launches - 60%

10 launches - 70%

11 launches - 80%

12 launches - 90%

≥ 13 launches - 100%

If it falls off the barge after landing, the recovery has failed. If the project is canceled before 13 attempts, resolves 100%.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Launch count will be based on the List of Starship launches on Wikipedia.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): A failed recovery includes if Starship falls out of the chopsticks or similar catching mechanisms, not just barge landings.

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