How many launches will there be before Starship is recovered (3-13)

Basic

Ṁ210

2033

66%

chance

ALL

Resolves to ((num launches - 3) * 10)%, including the launch that the recovery happens on.

3 launches - 0%

4 launches - 10%

5 launches - 20%

6 launches - 30%

7 launches - 40%

8 launches - 50%

9 launches - 60%

10 launches - 70%

11 launches - 80%

12 launches - 90%

≥ 13 launches - 100%

If it falls off the barge after landing, the recovery has failed. If the project is canceled before 13 attempts, resolves 100%.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Launch count will be based on the List of Starship launches on Wikipedia.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): A failed recovery includes if Starship falls out of the chopsticks or similar catching mechanisms, not just barge landings.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Starship Launch Party

#Commercial spaceflight

#Engineering

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Just to be clear, the plan for Starship is to catch it with the chopsticks. No barge landing is planned.

Same resolution criteria applies: falling out of the chopsticks - or anything along those lines - is a failed recovery.

sold Ṁ3 YES

for any ambiguity around hops, etc, numbering is based on this list
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches

bought Ṁ70 YES

I'm assuming you mean ≥ 13, not less

@Mqrius 🤦‍♂️ edited, thanks.

Does a splashdown into the ocean and recovering from the water count?

predictedYES

@OnixarLilen interesting one. I feel like the correct thing to say that it does count, only if at the time it's believed that this is the pathway to reuse. If they're just doing a splashdown for 1-off early tests without ever intending to solve the problems around refurbishing after salt water, that's a no.

Does that feel fair to you?

Is this the second stage or is recovering booster of any relevance?

predictedYES

@ChristopherRandles just the second stage (starship), booster (super heavy) isn't a part of this market.

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