How many launches will there be before Starship is recovered (3-13)
9
170Ṁ2152033
68%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to ((num launches - 3) * 10)%, including the launch that the recovery happens on.
3 launches - 0%
4 launches - 10%
5 launches - 20%
6 launches - 30%
7 launches - 40%
8 launches - 50%
9 launches - 60%
10 launches - 70%
11 launches - 80%
12 launches - 90%
≥ 13 launches - 100%
If it falls off the barge after landing, the recovery has failed. If the project is canceled before 13 attempts, resolves 100%.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Launch count will be based on the List of Starship launches on Wikipedia.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): A failed recovery includes if Starship falls out of the chopsticks or similar catching mechanisms, not just barge landings.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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