Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if between December 1–31, 2025 the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) publicly announces that Israel (IPBC/Kan) is barred/excluded/suspended from participating in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026, with the decision attributed to an EBU governing meeting held in 4th-5th December 2025. Acceptable evidence: an official statement or press release on ebu.ch or eurovision.tv; if none is published, two independent wire reports (e.g., Reuters/AP) quoting an EBU confirmation will suffice.
Resolves NO if no such December 2025 EBU decision is announced; if Israel voluntarily withdraws; if Israel is permitted under a neutral flag; if any ban is decided outside December 2025; or if a sanction applies only to years other than 2026.
The decision could come from different EBU bodies (General Assembly, Executive Board, or ESC governance) but must be clearly presented by the EBU as an EBU decision tied to a December 2025 meeting.
This market is about an EBU-imposed bar. Member/broadcaster boycotts or broadcaster-level choices do not count.
Background
The EBU’s Winter General Assembly (Members-only, typically in Geneva) is the Union’s highest decision-making forum and meets in December. Participation issues have been discussed at recent assemblies.
Several broadcasters have threatened to withdraw from Eurovision 2026 unless Israel is excluded; the EBU has been consulting members and set a mid-December 2025 participation-confirmation window to allow reaction to the meeting's decision.
Eurovision 2026 will be hosted in Vienna on May 12/14/16, following Austria’s 2025 win.
Update 2025-09-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only announcements in December 2025 count for YES.
A ban announced in November 2025 will resolve NO.
1,000People are also trading
@Transparent thanks for the alert!
KAN’s response was to ask for a supermajority of >75% to bar them
@MiguelLM it seems EBU already replied that the interpretation of the statutes by Israel is wrong. 50% should be enough
@Transparent Thanks for that. It seems to me like a technicality, so I will clarify that YES means "by December" and not "in December"
@Transparent and the Yes resolution is also explicit "Resolves YES if between December 1–31, 2025..."
I was also betting based on this resolution criteria, keeping the chances lower as it was plausible to see a ban before or after December.
Then I updated with the author reply
@MiguelLM from what I read I understood that there are no meetings until December, that's why I didn't attribute much importance to that.
I do agree that the phrasing of the conditions was pretty clear. So upon rethinking, let's keep it this way, only a December ban will count. A ban announced in November will count as NO.
@someoneR5c8l my prior until this week was, in case of expulsion:
~75% chances in December, as the general assembly was scheduled for this month
~15% chances in Jan-March, as they may postpone a decission (they did in July), or they may reconsider if many countries execute a conditional withdrawal, or international pressure grows if Israel crimes continue to grow
~10% chances before December if the pressure got very high
... and then this morning EBU sent a letter saying that they will schedule a specific session for voting about Israel participation in early November, so I updated my chances
>80% November
<20% December to May, if Israel manages to delay the session or if they have to repeat, or if EBU accept them now but later change their mind
Related market:
First major international competition to ban Israel
https://manifold.markets/MiguelLM/first-major-international-competiti