Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if between December 1–31, 2025 the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) publicly announces that Israel (IPBC/Kan) is barred/excluded/suspended from participating in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026, with the decision attributed to an EBU governing meeting held in 4th-5th December 2025. Acceptable evidence: an official statement or press release on ebu.ch or eurovision.tv; if none is published, two independent wire reports (e.g., Reuters/AP) quoting an EBU confirmation will suffice.

• Resolves NO if no such December 2025 EBU decision is announced; if Israel voluntarily withdraws; if Israel is permitted under a neutral flag; if any ban is decided outside December 2025; or if a sanction applies only to years other than 2026.

• The decision could come from different EBU bodies (General Assembly, Executive Board, or ESC governance) but must be clearly presented by the EBU as an EBU decision tied to a December 2025 meeting.

• This market is about an EBU-imposed bar. Member/broadcaster boycotts or broadcaster-level choices do not count.

Background

• The EBU’s Winter General Assembly (Members-only, typically in Geneva) is the Union’s highest decision-making forum and meets in December. Participation issues have been discussed at recent assemblies.

• Several broadcasters have threatened to withdraw from Eurovision 2026 unless Israel is excluded; the EBU has been consulting members and set a mid-December 2025 participation-confirmation window to allow reaction to the meeting's decision.

• Eurovision 2026 will be hosted in Vienna on May 12/14/16, following Austria’s 2025 win.