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MANIFOLD
Which country will win Eurovision 2026?
205
Ṁ1.1kṀ320k
resolved May 16
100%99.7%
Bulgaria
0.0%
United Kingdom
0.0%
France
0.0%
Germany
0.0%
Israel
0.0%
Poland
0.0%
Austria
0.0%
Sweden
0.2%
Finland
0.0%
Netherlands
0.0%
Belgium
0.0%
Australia
0.0%
Italy🇮🇹
0.0%
Estonia🇪🇪
0.0%
Turkey
0.0%
Greece or Cyprus
0.0%
Ukraine 🇺🇦
0.0%
Denmark 🇩🇰
0.0%
Luxembourg 🇱🇺
0.0%
Albania 🇦🇱

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If you have a strong opinion on which entries were actually best:

@someoneR5c8l im tired boss

i guess it's the dancing ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

filled a Ṁ500 YES at 97% order

I think this shows Eurovision absolutely cannot be predicted at all... gg all!

Bangabangabangabangaranga!

bought Ṁ2 YES

Kinda funny that just 2 days ago Bulgaria was trading at 0%

bought Ṁ100 YES

Graham Norton seems fearful of witchcraft, how will this influence the markets?

bought Ṁ50 YES

its lagging and i can't place bets sometimes xD

seems like I can already resolve - pretty clear Poland already won the hearts and minds of Eurovision viewers which is what this market meant by "win".

jk of course, enjoy the final everyone!

bought Ṁ10 NO

I've never seen a market moving so fast lmao

The market is bouncing around so much it looks like audio spectrum visualizer bars lol

sold Ṁ19 NO

@TheAllMemeingEye I can't even click the option i want to bet on half the time xD

filled a Ṁ100 NO at 15% order

@TheAllMemeingEye high frequency trading comes to manifold

bought Ṁ5 YES

@Tomoffer dead internet theory yadda yadda

bought Ṁ2 YES

congrats to UK for getting over 0 points

sold Ṁ4 YES

@nickten rare UK W

bought Ṁ1 YES

France obviously the best, might as well just resolve now tbh

absolute disaster from bulgaria

Why is « Greece or Cyprus » an option?

bought Ṁ35 YES

Personally I think Serbia/Sweden are the most deserving but I feel like Finland/France will win.

Never really enjoyed any top Eurovision contenders in the first place, but as a Finnish person I gotta say I'm absolutely dumbfounded as to why Finland is deemed the front-runner this year. What a vapid, industry-funded embarrassment of a song, seemingly meticulously tailored for the kind of people who clap when the plane lands.

@dgga

"kind of people who clap when the plane lands."

>describes eurovision voters

>guys why finland favored

@dgga it's a pop song. Vapid comes with the territory. Evaluate it on those terms if you want alpha.

@nickten hey man look I only clapped that one time and it was REALLY windy

@cthor my assessment: Eurovision fans frequently bemoan that countries don't enter songs in their native language. But non-English songs generally don't perform well, so despite this being a frequent criticism, most entrants continue to be in English. The cynical interpretation is that fans are lying and don't really care about this, revealed vs stated preferences and such. My view is they are honest but that there is the obvious tradeoff where people won't vote for a song they don't resonate with, and "I don't understand the lyrics" is a big barrier there, and the most widely understood language for voters is obviously English, so English generally wins for this tradeoff.

However, Finland's entry has achieved the excruciatingly difficult goal of communicating its emotional weight entirely through its visuals and musical structure. On one end you have the forlorn, sensitive, vulnerable, exasperated vocalist, the protagonist. He's trapped behind the frame, at many points reaching out to escape it, reaching out to her for some kind of release, but never getting it. Contrasted to him is the woman staring down at him from her comically elevated boots, chin often tucked, stiffly poised, slowly approaching him like a predator. She plays the violin with none of its typical softness or warmth. The notes are sharp, played as if to pierce his soul and consume him whole.

The narrative arc evoked: a man hopelessly infatuated with a woman who is destroying him. Emotional content that plays well for a pop song, broad appeal. So the average voter will resonate with this, think "Oh, that was a lovely song... And also I really liked that it was in their native language!" and give it their vote.

If you understand Finnish, what has been achieved will be less obvious (because you can understand the emotional content from the lyrics anyway), so that may explain what you're missing.