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MANIFOLD
Will a member of the EU win Eurovision?
17
Ṁ100Ṁ523
May 17
80%
chance

Resolution criteria

The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 final will be held on 16 May 2026 in Vienna, Austria. The market resolves YES if the winner of the contest is country that is a member of the - 🇪🇺 European Union 🇪🇺. The Big-4 (France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom) and host Austria are prequalified for the Grand Final. Of these, France, Germany, Italy, and Austria are EU members.

Background

35 countries will participate in the 2026 contest. Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova are returning after absences, while Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain have opted not to participate in protest against Israel's inclusion. EU member states participating include Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, and Sweden.

Non-EU participants include the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, Serbia, Montenegro, Georgia, Ukraine, Israel and others.

Market context
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