sleepen's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.2
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when sleepen bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- [Code Golf Challenge] Can Bitshift Variations in C Minor be compressed down to less than 185 characters? (Ṁ666 subsidy!)YESṀ1,118
- Will Manifold finish this blank 10,000 piece puzzle before AI wipes out humanity?YESṀ100
- [Code Golf Challenge3] Can Bitshift Variations in C Minor be compressed down to less than 182 characters? (Ṁ520 subsidy)YESṀ100