Will Jimmy Carter be alive on October 1 (his 99th birthday)? | Manifold Markets

Will Jimmy Carter be alive on October 1 (his 99th birthday)?

73

closes Oct 1

42%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

He's beaten some of the market predictions so far! Resolves according to whatever time zone Jimmy Carter is in.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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MayMetais predicting YES at 38%

Andrew Young, age 91, has recently visited Jimmy Carter. Here are some of his comments: “We did think that when he went into hospice it was very close to the end, now, I’m just going to tell you, he’s going to be 99 in October.” source

Karshbought Ṁ30 of NO

@MayMeta Correction: this comment was by Jimmy Carter's grandson

MayMetais predicting YES at 49%

MayMeta bought Ṁ5 YES from 41% to 42%

Alex K. Chen sold Ṁ10 YES from 42% to 41%

Nathaniel Li bought Ṁ10 YES from 41% to 42%

MayMeta created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 52%

MayMeta bought Ṁ3 YES at 41%

Alex K. Chen bought Ṁ10 YES at 41%

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ30 YES from 39% to 41%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ45/Ṁ100 NO at 39% (cancelled) 🤖

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ20 YES from 40% to 41%

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ55 YES from 37% to 40%

Peter Wildeford bought Ṁ100 NO from 40% to 37%

BankRobber bought Ṁ10 YES from 39% to 40%

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ25 YES from 38% to 39%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ45/Ṁ100 NO at 38% (cancelled) 🤖

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ65 YES from 36% to 40%

MayMeta created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 30%

MayMeta created limit order for Ṁ10 YES at 34%

MayMeta created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 68%

MayMeta created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 58%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ49/Ṁ100 YES at 36% (cancelled) 🤖

Peter Wildeford bought Ṁ400 NO from 48% to 33%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 YES at 48% (cancelled) 🤖

Tor Barstad bought Ṁ200 YES from 42% to 47%

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ35 YES from 40% to 42%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ43/Ṁ100 NO at 40% (cancelled) 🤖

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ35 YES from 40% to 42%

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ30 YES from 38% to 40%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ48/Ṁ100 NO at 38% (cancelled) 🤖

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ100 YES from 34% to 40%

evergreen bought Ṁ25 YES from 33% to 34%

cc6 bought Ṁ10 YES from 32% to 33%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 32% (cancelled) 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ56/Ṁ100 YES at 32% (cancelled) 🤖

PseudonymousAlt sold Ṁ102 YES from 35% to 29%

MayMeta created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 51% (cancelled)

MayMeta bought Ṁ30 YES from 33% to 35%

PseudonymousAlt bought Ṁ50 YES from 30% to 33%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ73/Ṁ100 NO at 30% (cancelled) 🤖

PseudonymousAlt bought Ṁ50 YES from 29% to 32%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ39/Ṁ100 YES at 29% (cancelled) 🤖

Peter Wildeford bought Ṁ500 NO from 41% to 27%

Dylan Slagh filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 42%

Marcus Abramovitch created limit order for Ṁ5,000 NO at 60%

Marcus Abramovitch bought Ṁ100 NO from 45% to 41%

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ100 YES from 42% to 45%

sleepen bought Ṁ10 YES from 41% to 42%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ100 NO at 41% (cancelled) 🤖

Dhruv Raghavan bought Ṁ100 YES from 38% to 42%

evergreen bought Ṁ10 YES from 37% to 38%

Jord inne bought Ṁ20 YES from 36% to 37%

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