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Should have had a market poll for the number of times Alex would shout "dudes in India!" or some variation 😒

Or the number of times he would just shout over other people with unrelated and weak statements that don't enforce anything substantial for the Yes side

I found his way of "debating" to be infuriating tbh

Round 2 - Destiny v. NSD would be a solid bout

*NSE

@shankypanky Are you talking about the right debate? This market is for the biden/trump one lol

@Gen ah fuck. Lol

@Gen I'm occasionally such a luddite

I don't think I understand this thing at all.

@StopAskingForRealNames So it was about who would convince more people to their side. Because so many started by supporting destiny even a small shift gave the win to the other guy.

Easy

The entire room picked yes, making no the obvious choice.

Bruh

this event hasn't been great for the case for market predictions

One guy flipping from 95 -> 90 is what made NO win? I think? I think the decision mechanism on these is really janky. I think we'd do a lot better with a bigger crowd and a simpler / smoother vote

@WolfMan Audience polling is a really dumb way to decide these, which is something you have to take into account when betting

@WolfMan Actually, the best traders made the most profit!

@jacksonpolack the whole point is that the market is supposed to integrate more information and make the best decision, the criteria for the win is some of the most upfront information

To be fair to them - this particular kind of audience vote is pretty standard for debates.

the whole point is that the market is supposed to integrate more information and make the best decision, the criteria for the win is some of the most upfront information

Right, but figuring stuff out isn't actually easy. Prediction markets aren't claiming to be better than, like, all of the people involved's intelligence combined, and it's hard to predict ex ante that that the new trump guy walks in?

@jacksonpolack I guess you're kind of right, the market sat around %70 for most of the debate and it possible the noise could have gone the other way. Probably would have been a bit more balanced with more time but then I'd expect more discussion or something, I guess things just break more when they're too small

There was some discussion of the resolution mechanism being broken in the discord, and that was why the price was 70% instead of 90%. I think that ex post we can say 50% is better than 70% but it wasn't obvious at the time. And I made the most profit by betting on that rationale!

I find the likelihood of a Trump enthusiast intentionally not voting in the first poll just to flip the entire market by voting in the end poll a lot higher than 30%.

If I felt a bit more like gambling I'd definitely go all-in NO.

Goddamnit

How many hands was that for Trump? Any?

@Joshua One.

@Joshua it didn't show but it must've been 1 or a few at most which is BIG for us NO bettors, if our one man stays we win

@CaShew plus if Sean can flip a single person that basically guarantees a win for him, even if Destiny gets more undecided people to Biden

Any audience members in the comments? I know of no rules against bribery...