My hackathon project today was adding loot boxes to Manifold (as a fun random side project—please don't read anything more into this): https://manifold.markets/lootbox
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ6,332 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,052 | |
| 3 | Ṁ700 | |
| 4 | Ṁ529 | |
| 5 | Ṁ478 |
@Marsteralex Congratulations on winning! SG stated that exactly 1000 loot boxes were purchased. How did you manage to achieve such precision? I assume that you have created a script to automate the buying process, but I'm really impressed that the number of loot boxes is so precise. How did you do it?
@bessarabov Either @SG closed the market as soon as 1000 was reached, or only @Marsteralex was buying lootboxes, and aimed for exactly 1000-741=259 since the last count was published
I didn’t need that 212 mana anyways
An exciting finish! Exactly 1,000 loot boxes were purchased at time of resolution. Congrats to @Marsteralex who purchased the final box (and the most of any user)!
The fact that this market was ever at less than 5% before today is funny to me, when it's an isomorphism of "Will someone push this very funny and easily pushed button?"
@ShitakiIntaki I keep getting caught in markets that get manipulated. It’s not fun. If it keeps happening I’m just going to give up on manifold
@PhatFree You can choose to bet on markets that can't be manipulated.
Like one of the 'related markets' here: https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-nintendo-switch-become-the you can't manipulate that.
@PhatFree being able to estimate manipulation chances of a market is part of the skillset
@brubsby I want to bet what I want to bet on. Not have to tip toe around trying to decide if someone going to abuse a market. It’s not fun and it makes manifold not fun, It’s that simple.
@Fedor That’s not true. Someone could manipulate that by buying switches. I’ve been caught out by someone spending $1,000+ to manipulate a market before.
@PhatFree prediction markets are fundamentally tied to the reality of the event they are predicting, by definition. if a prediction market created for the purpose of incentivizing an event happens to end up incentivizing the event via market forces, i would say that the market has succeeded, not failed.
@brubsby Buddy, I’ve been in this community much longer then you, and have a higher calibration rating then you. I really don’t appreciate you mansplaining what a prediction market is to me.
@PhatFree Prediction markets are action markets. One way to profit is to align your predictions to the state of the world. Another way is to align the state of the world to your predictions.
@PhatFree my apologies, it just seemed like you needed a reminder. i should've known better than to disagree with such a calibrated individual
@KongoLandwalker "abuse" implies misuse or impropriety, but successful incentivization of site feature use seems neither