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MANIFOLD
Manifest 2026 Prop Bets
57
Ṁ12kṀ11k
Jun 30
98.7%
Mana is exchanged for services
98.3%
Mana is exchanged for goods
97%
>4 people group hug
96%
There are at least five people talking after 5am
90%
Smores are consumed
88%
Someone does something to make an option resolve Yes and later regrets it
85%
More than five (non-admin) mods in attendance
85%
Aella Attends
84%
cuddle puddle of >5
83%
Someone wears a suit and tie
80%
10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend
75%
Someone cries
72%
Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)
64%
Someone attends in a partial fursuit
63%
one or more people are unable to attend due to fuckery at border/customs
62%
Trump golfs the weekend of the conference
61%
Someone gets a job offer at the conference
61%
Someone gets a boyfriend at the conference
59%
A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial
59%
Someone holds a kabbalat shabbat

Manifest 2026 will take place June 12-14 in Berkeley, California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not LessOnline or Summer Camp.

Add anything that you think would be:

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respectful of people's privacy

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. Traders should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.

  • Update 2026-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "BTC falls below $100,000 during the conference" option will be resolved N/A (it was a carryover from last year's market and is not applicable).

  • Update 2026-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'at least five people talking after 5am' option means five people are still awake and talking at 5am (i.e., a late night, not early morning). Evidence must be provided to the creator for resolution.

  • Update 2026-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Someone wears a suit and tie' option:

    • Acceptable suits include: wetsuit, fursuit, bathing suit, partial fursuit, suit of armor, birthday suit, Hazmat suit, Pressure suit, Strongman suit, and others open to interpretation

    • Not acceptable: Jumpsuit or Tracksuit

    • A (visible) tie is not optional

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@shankypanky Needs clarification … I’d bet there are at least five people talking at 10am, which is after 5am, but that seems like not what you meant?

@Conflux ah this one came over from last year's market as well. I'll assume this one is going to be manipulable lol the presumption is that these five people are still going at 5am meaning it's a late 5am not an early 5am. Evidence to be provided to me for resolution

@shankypanky what does this even mean?

@100Anonymous https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/pledge

@draaglom I think this should be in quotes or something, otherwise it looks like bad grammar.

@100Anonymous it's very common knowledge among manifolders/manifesters/effective altruists

@realTomBayes I don't think all manifolders are effective altruists and despite knowing this pledge, I got confused at first.

@100Anonymous I'll add quotes, that's fair!

Would a wetsuit, fursuit, bathing suit, partial fursuit, or a suit of armor qualify as a suit?

These are very important, imperative questions.

For what it's worth, I argue a birthday suit does not count if you have to wear a tie as well for this market.

@Quroe I'll accept all of the above including a birthday suit and a Hazmat suit or a Pressure suit or Strongman suit (and perhaps others?), but I'll draw the line at a Jumpsuit or a Tracksuit.

Suit open to interpretation, (visible) tie not optional.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Suggestions for other people to add:

  • How many of the "Big 3" PM CEOs will show up? (Coplan, Mansour, Lara) Add 33% to the markets resolution % for each one who attends

  • How many episodes of supercycle.blog (cohosted by @realTomBayes and @FlipPidot) will be recorded at Manifest? Add 33% to the markets resolution % for each episode

  • Someone is convinced that futarchy is the most effective way to make decisions?

More coming soon!

@realTomBayes Here's more:

  • Someone loses >Ṁ50,000 on a Manifest-related market?

  • Someone gifts someone >Ṁ25,000 at Manifest?

  • Will Manifest 2026 be a Manifest x FYRE?

  • Geneva convention violations?

  • Arrest at Manifest?

  • Doom Debate with Liron live at Manifest?

@shankypanky Does this mean it has to be >$100k at the start of the conference?

@realTomBayes oh I'm going to NA that one, that's a carry over from duplicating the market from last year (good catch)

@shankypanky He's not going to attend, He'll be at Public Choice Outreach conference during Manifest

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