Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Manifest 2026 Prop Bets
73
Ṁ13kṀ18k
Jun 30
50%
Albie gets hugs from at least 5 different people
69%
Runs out of Huel/Soylent
55%
Someone loses at least 25% of their total eyebrow mass
50%
Someone loses at least 50% of one eyebrow
94%
Standard (not RPS) poker tournament
79%
Two people make intense eye contact for 60 seconds without smiling or laughing
66%
A session receives more than 2x RSVPs than the session location’s listed capacity
55%
At least 3 Norwegian people attend Manifest.
22%
Destiny joins Manifold and bets on this market
56%
someone gets convinced to start writing on substack
42%
Analytic Philosophy vs. Rationalism panel happens
60%
Someone who previously did not belive that Tiramisu is cake is convinced otherwise
43%
10 or more markets are created and resolved within an hour (popups)
31%
Someone rickrolls Eliezer Yudkowsky
8%
Someone breaks an arm
57%
Barak sells/offers something at night market
55%
All official @ManifoldSports World Cup markets for games played during the conference auto-resolve without issues
45%
@ian finally reveals what his new middle name is
55%
Someone does coinflips and gets tails 7 times in a row
95%
Robin Hanson comes even though he's meant to be at the Public Outreach Conference

Manifest 2026 will take place June 12-14 in Berkeley, California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not LessOnline or Summer Camp.

Add anything that you think would be:

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respectful of people's privacy

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. Traders should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.

  • Update 2026-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "BTC falls below $100,000 during the conference" option will be resolved N/A (it was a carryover from last year's market and is not applicable).

  • Update 2026-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'at least five people talking after 5am' option means five people are still awake and talking at 5am (i.e., a late night, not early morning). Evidence must be provided to the creator for resolution.

  • Update 2026-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Someone wears a suit and tie' option:

    • Acceptable suits include: wetsuit, fursuit, bathing suit, partial fursuit, suit of armor, birthday suit, Hazmat suit, Pressure suit, Strongman suit, and others open to interpretation

    • Not acceptable: Jumpsuit or Tracksuit

    • A (visible) tie is not optional

  • Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Robin Hanson comes even though he's meant to be at the Public Outreach Conference' option: partial attendance counts as attendance for resolution purposes.

Prop Bets
Manifest
Manifold
Manifest2026
Unranked
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

@Tarl Does this somebody need to start from a position of opposition? Or could somebody who has never considered this philosophical dilemma at all qualify if they are just presented with an argument and then they proceed to agree?

@Quroe i feel like the person in question should at least at some point have been of the belief that tiramisu isn't cake. So if someone was asked "Is Tiramisu cake?" and answered "No, I don't think so" and then convinced that Tiramisu is indeed cake it would count.

@Tarl easy! tiramisu isn't cake so it's not really even a question. I would vehemently argue the position. (I'm not gonna be at Manifest tho)

@Tarl Given that we exist on Manifold, a place where we trade on our beliefs, how should we gauge whether or not somebody truly had their beliefs changed? Is there some standard that we can use to prevent somebody from lying about their beliefs having changed?

We must cull the false non-believers.

@CarolanneJiang Ah-ha! So if a session only has 1 RSVP, but the room is packed...?

Never mind. I needed to read it twice.

@shankypanky What happens if he only attends for part of Manifest?

@realTomBayes Attendance is attendance!

filled a Ṁ89 YES at 90% order

@realTomBayes Boop! (In case you want to take it up above 90%.)

@Quroe Actually, if you want to be my counterparty, I would consider taking on some NO shares at 10 cents.

@realTomBayes Well now you're scaring me. I thought you already said that you were going to interview him at Manifest according to your Substack!

@Quroe I will interview him at Manifest. I'll buy YES shares on that at 95 cents.

I want to bet NO on that listed option at 10 cents.

@realTomBayes Now I'm really scaring you, huh.

@realTomBayes That's not how you get counterparties!!

@Quroe It's different on Manifold

Some confirmed speakers now on the site, to spark some inspiration?

https://manifest.is/

Manifest 2026
A festival for prediction markets & the future. June 12-14, 2026 · Berkeley, CA.

@shankypanky Needs clarification … I’d bet there are at least five people talking at 10am, which is after 5am, but that seems like not what you meant?

@Conflux ah this one came over from last year's market as well. I'll assume this one is going to be manipulable lol the presumption is that these five people are still going at 5am meaning it's a late 5am not an early 5am. Evidence to be provided to me for resolution

@shankypanky what does this even mean?

@100Anonymous https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/pledge

@draaglom I think this should be in quotes or something, otherwise it looks like bad grammar.

@100Anonymous it's very common knowledge among manifolders/manifesters/effective altruists

@realTomBayes I don't think all manifolders are effective altruists and despite knowing this pledge, I got confused at first.

@100Anonymous I'll add quotes, that's fair!

Would a wetsuit, fursuit, bathing suit, partial fursuit, or a suit of armor qualify as a suit?

These are very important, imperative questions.

For what it's worth, I argue a birthday suit does not count if you have to wear a tie as well for this market.

@Quroe I'll accept all of the above including a birthday suit and a Hazmat suit or a Pressure suit or Strongman suit (and perhaps others?), but I'll draw the line at a Jumpsuit or a Tracksuit.

Suit open to interpretation, (visible) tie not optional.

People are also trading