Manifest 2026 will take place June 12-14 in Berkeley, California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not LessOnline or Summer Camp.
Add anything that you think would be:
Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respectful of people's privacy
I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.
Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. Traders should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.
1,000People are also trading
Suggestions for other people to add:
How many of the "Big 3" PM CEOs will show up? (Coplan, Mansour, Lara) Add 33% to the markets resolution % for each one who attends
How many episodes of supercycle.blog (cohosted by @realTomBayes and @FlipPidot) will be recorded at Manifest? Add 33% to the markets resolution % for each episode
Someone is convinced that futarchy is the most effective way to make decisions?
More coming soon!
@realTomBayes Here's more:
Someone loses >Ṁ50,000 on a Manifest-related market?
Someone gifts someone >Ṁ25,000 at Manifest?
Will Manifest 2026 be a Manifest x FYRE?
Geneva convention violations?
Arrest at Manifest?
Doom Debate with Liron live at Manifest?
@realTomBayes oh I'm going to NA that one, that's a carry over from duplicating the market from last year (good catch)
@shankypanky He's not going to attend, He'll be at Public Choice Outreach conference during Manifest