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MANIFOLD
Aliens.gov Prop Bets
181
Ṁ650Ṁ14k
May 1
93%
It contains at least some text
62%
The site has content before July 1, 2026
61%
contains debunked media of space alien activity
52%
The site has content before June 1, 2026
48%
It's about extraterrestrial life
48%
Mention of Area 51 on site
44%
Documents declassified for the first time are on the site
40%
Mention of Roswell on site
39%
It redirects to another domain before 12:00am EST May 1, 2026 (If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)
33%
It has a cookie consent banner/notice while viewed from any New York state VPN before 12:00am EST May 1, 2026 (If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)
32%
The site has content before May 1, 2026
18%
Is significantly geo-restricted, for example the content cannot be viewed in Europe or some USA states without using a VPN.
16%
It's about mexicans
15%
it's about immigration
15%
It will have its own Wikipedia page by 5/1
14%
The government, bored of just selling pardons, has moved on to selling ".gov" domain names to 3rd party private organisations and/or individuals, and this is one of those times.
13%
Contains AI images or video presented in a way that viewers are supposed to think they're real.
12%
By May 1st, 2026, site contents unequivocally state UAP craft exist, but does not unequivocally state non-human intelligence exists
11%
implies race supremacy/ethnocentrism is real (genetic/cultural/preordained)
10%
There is a report that the registration is hacked or otherwise not deliberate by the government

Aliens.gov was registered on March 17, 2026. What's it about?

Inspired by pluc on Hacker News.

Ground Rules

  • Unless otherwise specified in the answer or comments, if an answer requires content to exist as a prerequisite to resolution (e.g. "It's about extraterrestrial life" could not be true unless there is content on the domain), the answer will resolve N/A at the original question closed date of May 1 if the site has no content as of that date.

  • Unless otherwise specified, if the domain redirects to a site with official content (e.g. USPS uses .com even as a government entity), the answers will resolve on the basis of that redirected content.

  • Simple "coming soon" pages don't count as content, unless they can unequivocally resolve one of the answers (e.g. "Coming Soon: The America Gets Rid of All Illegal Mexican Aliens Department (AGRAIMAD)" resolves "It's about mexicans" to YES). A GoDaddy parked page or generic "Coming Soon" does not.

  • Update 2026-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "It's about extraterrestrial life" resolves YES even if ETs are only referenced obliquely (e.g., in the context of a popular explanation for UFOs/UAPs).

  • Update 2026-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers related to Mexicans: content about illegal immigrants generally counts as being about Mexicans (since Mexicans are included in that group). However, content specifically about other immigrant groups (e.g. Haitians) without mention of Mexicans would not qualify.

  • Update 2026-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers requiring a redirect: whether the answer resolves YES/NO will be judged based on whether the redirected page contains the relevant content (e.g. text).

  • Update 2026-04-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The ground rules paragraph about N/A resolution should be read as: if an answer requires content to exist as a prerequisite to resolution and there is no content on the site by the close date, the answer will resolve N/A.

Market context
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bought Ṁ10 YES

@Quroe Case for YES: alien.gov was also registered. this market references only aliens.gov. aliens.gov could redirect to alien.gov

@realDonaldTrump Clever interpretation!

  • Unless otherwise specified in the answer or comments, if an answer requires content to exist as a prerequisite to resolution (e.g. "It's about extraterrestrial life" could not be true unless there is content on the domain), the answer will resolve N/A at the original question closed date of May 1.

I am guessing your intent was for this paragraph to have an "if there is no content on the site" clause somewhere. As written, you're just saying that all options about the content or behavior of the site resolve N/A period.

@marvingardens … yes. Thanks!

bought Ṁ9 NO

@benmanns Ok so what about e.g. "It contains at least some text"?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@TobiasDraisma April fools is over now, so unless someone has seen something, this can probably resolve NO.

Might distill it when (if) it's up, find out what's hiding.

Apparently it's more likely to be about mexicans than be about immigration? 🤷‍♂️

edit : That's better :) people moved the market so they're the right way round now.

If it’s a redirect, would “it contains at least some text” resolve NO?

@Lovix unless otherwise clarified, it will be judged based on if the redirected page contains text.

@benmanns And if there is no site site at all by the deadline, it resolves N/A?

In other words, it can only resolve NO if we get a website with just pictures?

@AlanTennant can you clarify? My read of the answer would be "some text" vs "no text"/"not online" such that "if an answer requires content to exist as a prerequisite to resolution (e.g. "It's about extraterrestrial life" could not be true unless there is content on the domain), the answer will resolve N/A at the original question closed date of May 1." and it would resolve No on the close date.

@benmanns offline is N/A, online with text is Yes, online without text is No. Redirect to a different site is not the same site, and so N/A. Anywhere aliens.gov, X.aliens.gov, aliens.gov/Y, or X.aliens.gov/Y where the X and Y can be anything is the same site.

@AlanTennant What counts as text?

Presumably visible text rendered by the browser as part of the body tag counts, but what about

  • Text that is embedded as part of an image?

  • Alt text on an image?

  • 404 message/error text?

  • Tab header (page title)

  • Text visible in the console only?

  • Text in the html page that doesn’t render to the screen (comments or even tags)

  • Text rendered by the browser but not typically visible (white on white, too small, etc)

@JimHays I'm not sure if text in an image counts, but that that would be reasonable reason to N/A.

404 text that's in an HTML or other (not an image/video etc…) file provided by the server I'd think counts, but not one your browser defaults to when communicating the error code that's not dependant on the domain (website).

HTML internal stuff isn't text on the page.

Invisible text doesn't count, including background coloured text, and text behind opaque elements, and text below around point 8 in size, maybe test on at least two browsers, and on a screen size at least as large as a large mobile phone.

bought Ṁ10 NO

I think this market has more faith in the USA government than me.

@AlanTennant Just the landing page, or anywhere on the site?

bought Ṁ5 YES

@Quroe Anywhere aliens.gov, X.aliens.gov, aliens.gov/Y, or X.aliens.gov/Y where the X and Y can be anything.

The banner/notice must be prominently displayed to the user upon landing on the page. For example, if it is subtext at the bottom of the page, and the user may need to scroll to get to it, it doesn't count.

Any VPN is valid as long as it is set to tunnel to any location within New York state.

@creator The intent is to resolve this NO if the site doesn't have anything on it at all before the deadline unless it conflicts with any other default rulings you have stated.

@creator Is my intent in alignment with your comment here? If not, yours understandably overrides mine.

@Quroe had you not said anything I would have N/Aed, but I’m happy to resolve to whatever guideline you want. Let’s just decide so traders have clarity.

@benmanns I would rather the market answer be consistent with the rules you are laying out for all of the other ones, but I'll be honest and say that there is a driving force to chase new trader bonuses. If it N/As, the bonuses are clawed back.

Is there succinct wording we can incorporate into my market answers that would make it obvious to traders that it defaults to NO?

This is also the intent behind the redirect market answer too. I imagined in my head that it would default to NO if there is no site at all before May 1.

I don't have edit powers for my answers, but I would like to suggest adding this line to my 2 answers on the board:

(If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)

@benmanns You're the best. ☺️

@LoganTurner Heads up. You're the biggest YES holder on the redirect market. Does this clause affect how you view your position?

@Quroe I'm good with the added clause. Thanks for checking!