Manifold The Site 2026 Prop Bets
22
3.1kṀ3780
2026
5%
Site shuts down permanently/indefinitely
41%
Active traders (daily 7d avg) >2000 at any point
29%
Mana Merch Shop sells Ṁ10M+
12%
Acquired by another prediction market company
12%
Charity program returns and $100k+ donated
86%
Anybody stays in Masters all 12 months
15%
Someone loses Ṁ1M in a single market
26%
A previously banned user becomes a mod
16%
House-mediated p2p loans
29%
3+ ManifestXs
19%
Site completely offline for continuous 24h+
17%
Manifold ad visible on TV in a stadium
35%
Raises $10M+ in external funding
18%
New currency
22%
Partner-esque program (re)launches
29%
Top-10 user on profit/creator/referral leaderboard permabanned
54%
Manifest happens and >600 attendees
41%
$10k+ mana sales in one day
32%
@acc is active
60%
ReReRePivot (a new method for real money launches)

What's going to be new? What's going to change or stay the same? What's going to happen AGAIN?

Must happen in 2026. Illegitimate stuff won't count, ofc.

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@NotJeromeHPowell That's who I was thinking of too!

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