Manifold The Site 2026 Prop Bets
34
3.4kṀ7448
Dec 31
1.8%
Site shuts down permanently/indefinitely
10%
Charity program returns and $100k+ donated
41%
Active traders (daily 7d avg) >2000 at any point
9%
Acquired by another prediction market company
12%
A previously banned user becomes a mod
19%
3+ ManifestXs
19%
Mana Merch Shop sells Ṁ10M+
15%
Site completely offline for continuous 24h+
11%
House-mediated p2p loans
12%
Manifold ad visible on TV in a stadium
86%
Anybody stays in Masters all 12 months
20%
Someone loses Ṁ1M in a single market
71%
Manifest happens and >600 attendees
17%
New currency
75%
ReReRePivot (a new method for real money launches)
35%
Raises $10M+ in external funding
82%
New type(s) of user badge
22%
Partner-esque program (re)launches
64%
Optional paid subscription plan(s) for users
29%
Top-10 user on profit/creator/referral leaderboard permabanned

What's going to be new? What's going to change or stay the same? What's going to happen AGAIN?

Must happen in 2026. Illegitimate stuff won't count, ofc.

Add more.

  • Update 2025-12-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "Top-10 user on profit/creator/referral leaderboard permabanned": If a user exploits their way to the top-10 and gets permabanned for those exploits, this will count as long as they remain on the leaderboard and aren't shortly removed after the ban.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@Jack1 where was this announced? Has anyone received interest for doing this?

@Jack1 see the convo just below with MR ME. I'll managram you the answer cost

bought Ṁ250 YES

@creator You earn mana if you add liquidity to someone else’s market (trader bonus, fees etc)

I think this resolves as yes since new interest program pays money on anything in AMM

@MRME AMM interest increases the AMM pool. While yes, that could mean you get paid back more on resolution, it's not a direct compensation or bonus (and much too small besides).

sold Ṁ250 YES

@Stralor ok. I personally still think it should count but your call.

@MRME the key here is I want subsidizers rewarded for their contribution akin to how creators are, rather than simply subsidizing as a way to park mana and get interest

@MRME @Stralor actually maybe this is telling me I don’t understand the new system.

My understanding is that if I added 1,000 liquidity to a market that resolved in a year, I would get 50 mana on market resolution.

Is that totally wrong?

@MRME hmm maybe it is only on resolution. I've been a bit MIA. but that's hardly a reward on any market that settles the price correctly; you'd be paying 1000 mana to get 50, and it wouldn't have anything to do with whether the subsidy generated more activity on the market.

perhaps my option here is too vague?

@Stralor as is, basically the interest is just a rebate for creators for resolving their markets imo (if we're right about it being at resolution time)

@Stralor the option says: “You earn mana if you add liquidity to someone else’s market (trader bonus, fees etc)”.

To me, if you add liquidity and that liquidity earns interest, that is the same as a trader bonus or fee. Neither of those pays for the cost of most market either.

I’m not trying to be difficult here, but if interest isn’t in scope I do think the option needs more clarity.

@MRME you're not! it's reasonable for me to reassess it. did you take any losses on your trades?

@Stralor nope - nobody traded against me so I sold out exactly even.

@MRME alright, re-trade it, I'll resolve YES and try to get a new one that more appropriately covers what I'm thinking

@Stralor oh lol just noticed that isnt even my answer. well, I'm calling it

bought Ṁ937 YES

@Stralor lol done.

@Stralor A genuine user? Or if someone exploited themselves from 10000 to #1 and got perm banned for doing that, Would that count?

@NzJack0n hmmm if they're banned and aren't shortly removed from the leaderboard for those antics I'd accept it

@MiaBerg Can you explain this more? Very curious

@NotJeromeHPowell That's who I was thinking of too!

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy