Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as of July 1, 2026, Anthropic has not released any AI model available for public use (whether free or paid) that achieves performance comparable to the leading publicly available models at the time across a broad range of tasks.

• “Available for public use” means accessible to consumers in the United States without requiring special partnerships, restricted trials, or enterprise-only access.

• “Performance comparable” means that, based on credible evaluations (e.g., standardized academic benchmarks, major public leaderboards, or expert consensus), the Anthropic model does not match or exceed the capabilities of top models from other labs on a diverse set of tasks, including but not limited to reasoning, coding, and writing.

• Efficiency (e.g., inference speed or compute cost) and API pricing will not be considered in evaluating performance.

If, by July 1, 2026, no clear, publicly available evidence shows that Anthropic’s models significantly trail the top competitors, the market will resolve to “No.”

If no models created by Anthropic are available to the public at all, the market will resolve to “Yes.”

If, by July 1, 2026, leading AI companies (such as OpenAI, Google DeepMind, etc.) are generally no longer releasing models to the public (e.g., due to a major industry-wide shift to closed or private access only), the market will resolve N/A.