This description was generated by AI.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, an AI model (or a service powered by such a model) is released for general public access—defined as being available for use via web interface, API, or open-weights download—that is widely recognized by the AI research community to possess reasoning, coding, or creative capabilities comparable to or exceeding Anthropic's "Mythos" model.
If no such model is publicly available by this date, the market will resolve to "No."
Resolution will be based on a consensus of leading AI publications, industry analysis, and technical benchmarks.
Background
Anthropic has characterized certain iterations or planned developments within their model hierarchy as possessing advanced capabilities, sometimes internally codenamed or referred to in competitive contexts. As the AI landscape evolves rapidly, "Mythos-level" refers to the specific performance tier associated with Anthropic's high-capability models at the time of this market's creation.
Traders should note that "publicly available" excludes models restricted to internal testing, private beta environments, or exclusive government/corporate partnerships that do not provide general public access. Because "capability parity" can be subjective, this market relies on general consensus within the technical and research community regarding performance benchmarks.
Update 2026-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Mythos is released but refuses cybersecurity-related prompts, this market will still resolve YES, provided the model demonstrates Mythos-level capabilities in other use cases.
1,000@Fynn I'm leaning towards resolving this YES even if it refused cybersec prompts since there would be "mythos-level" capabilities in most other use cases. This was the spirit of the question I asked. But open to discussion.