Will Google acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2026 ?
9
100Ṁ503
Dec 31
10%
chance

Inspired by @lucas_montano's viral X prediction about Google-Anthropic consolidation.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA:

Resolves YES if by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT: Google (Alphabet Inc.) officially announces acquisition of Anthropic (majority stake 51%+ or full buyout), confirmed by official press release, SEC filing, or 3+ tier-1 sources (WSJ, Bloomberg, Reuters, FT).

Resolves NO if no acquisition by deadline.

CONTEXT:

• Google invested $3B+ in Anthropic (Jan 2025)

• Google signed tens of billions $ deal for 1M TPUs (Oct 2025)

• Anthropic leads enterprise AI market at 40% share (ahead of OpenAI's 27%)

• AWS is primary training partner ($8B investment)

• Original prediction: https://x.com/lucas_montano/status/2007388630407684467?s=20

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"Which will happen first, google acquires anthropic, or anthropic acquires google?"

bought Ṁ50 YES

Putting M where my mouth is at 45% YES 📊

Bull case: $3B invested, GCP lock-in, MS-OpenAI pressure

Bear case: Dario wants independence, antitrust risk, fast timeline

What probability would YOU assign? 🤔

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