Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for Anthropic credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-06-30.
Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing. Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-06-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
Sources. Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ). Post-IPO market cap is public daily via standard market data. A single credible report is sufficient to resolve a threshold YES if not contradicted. Analyst estimates do not trigger resolution.
See also:
/Bayesian/anthropic-highest-valuation-by-end (this market)
/Bayesian/anthropic-highest-valuation-by-end-sLNqnZzNQg
/Bayesian/anthropic-highest-valuation-by-end-NdEUcRyhds
/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of
1,000People are also trading
@AffineTyped 67% that it's between 1.1 and 1.25 seems wrong, are you aware this doesn't count ventual type secondary markets
@MaxLennartson iiuc secondary markets are a type of secondary transaction but secondary transactions can happen outside of a market and still count (as a secondary transaction)? but pretty much yeah that's what it's mostly talking about