Suggest interesting options in the comments! (tentative) resolution criteria: Anthropic, Anthropic Institute, or orgs substantially owned by Anthropic count Anthropic Fellowship counts Acquisitions and acquihires count Credible announcements count, even if formal employment/acquisition doesn't start until 2027 or later

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Alec Radford, followed by Nadia Asparouhova and Nan Ransohoff are most likely. See the market for live updates (65 traders, as of Jul 10, 2026).

Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?

MANIFOLD

Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?

Ṁ17kṀ39k

Dec 31

21%

Alec Radford

18%

Nadia Asparouhova

14%

Nan Ransohoff

11%

Katja Grace

10%

Austin Chen (me)

janus

Dwarkesh Patel

James Grugett

Scott Alexander

Gwern

@Bayesian

Stephen Grugett

Suggest interesting options in the comments!

(tentative) resolution criteria:

Anthropic, Anthropic Institute, or orgs substantially owned by Anthropic count
Anthropic Fellowship counts
Acquisitions and acquihires count
Credible announcements count, even if formal employment/acquisition doesn't start until 2027 or later

Market context

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