By what percentage will using AI slowdown/speedup developers in the second METR study?
2
300Ṁ122026
20%
Speedup, below -5%
10%
-5% to 0%
10%
0% to +5%
10%
+5% to +10%
10%
+10% to +15%
10%
+15% to +20%
18%
Slowdown, above +20%
10%
+19% slowdown on average was observed in the first METR RCT study published in July 2025: "Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity"

The spirit of this market is to compare both studies apples-to-apples. Hopefully METR will officially tell us what the second study's equivalent percentage figure is, that can be directly compared with the first study's +19%. If not, this market will resolve N/A.
The bounds are left inclusive and right exclusive except for "+15% to +20%", in which right is also inclusive.
If no second study is published before 1st August 2026 this market will resolve N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?
How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?
Will an AI system capable of doing tasks that take humans eight hours as determined by METR.org, exist by 2027
85% chance
Will AI figure out who has the highest processing speed to working memory ratio by 2030?
48% chance
If the progress of AI experiences a slowdown before 2030, what might be the cause?
Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
98% chance
Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2025?
44% chance
Will it be conclusively shown (through some way) that slowing the aging rate of AI researchers down (eg interventions decreasing DNAm age) will increase their net output/productivity by 2029?
14% chance
Will an AI system beat human performance in Trackmania Tool-Assisted Speedrunning by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?
77% chance