Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?
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In early 2025 METR found that AI tools slow down open source developers. Will this change by 2027?
Must find improved productivity within a 95% confidence interval
https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/
Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The RCT does not have to be peer reviewed to resolve this market. A preprint is acceptable as long as it is made public by METR.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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