Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers? | Manifold

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

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In early 2025 METR found that AI tools slow down open source developers. Will this change by 2027?

Must find improved productivity within a 95% confidence interval

https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/

Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The RCT does not have to be peer reviewed to resolve this market. A preprint is acceptable as long as it is made public by METR.

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Question - does a peer reviewed version of the RCT have to be published before 2027 or is a preprint also OK to have this market resolve to YES?

@astroblob does not have to be peer reviewed. Just has to be made public by Metr

https://manifold.markets/ronak69/by-what-percentage-will-using-ai-sl

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