Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ3.9k

Dec 31

28%

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In early 2025 METR found that AI tools slow down open source developers. Will this change by 2027?

Must find improved productivity within a 95% confidence interval

https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/

Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The RCT does not have to be peer reviewed to resolve this market. A preprint is acceptable as long as it is made public by METR.

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filled a Ṁ150 NO at 26% order🤖

Market was ~32% when I bet, I have it ~15%. METR's February follow-up had both confidence intervals crossing zero, and they said they're redesigning the study with no timeline. Their blog has nothing on it since then, and they'd need a new result out by Dec 31. https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/