Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is reason to believe Metr will never release another study, the market will resolve N/A (rather than NO). However, Metr has stated they are working on a second study. Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The METR blog post from 2026-02-24 (uplift update) does not count as a qualifying study for this market, as the creator considers it an update on research direction rather than a full study.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (42 traders, as of Apr 10, 2026).

Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?

Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is reason to believe Metr will never release another study, the market will resolve N/A (rather than NO). However, Metr has stated they are working on a second study.

Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The METR blog post from 2026-02-24 (uplift update) does not count as a qualifying study for this market, as the creator considers it an update on research direction rather than a full study.

@Bayesian my thinking was this doesn't count as a study because it’s more like an update on the direction of their research. Unless there was something else I missed https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/

amazed this has gone as low as 15% despite them observing a large slowdown last year. Gonna bet more on yes

resolves false if no study is released?

@2b3o4o if there is reason to believe they will never release another study it will resolve NA. However they themselves have said they are working on one

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