Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study? | Manifold

Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?

36

Ṁ4kṀ7.1k

2027

18%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is reason to believe Metr will never release another study, the market will resolve N/A (rather than NO). However, Metr has stated they are working on a second study.

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bought Ṁ150 YES

amazed this has gone as low as 15% despite them observing a large slowdown last year. Gonna bet more on yes

resolves false if no study is released?

@2b3o4o if there is reason to believe they will never release another study it will resolve NA. However they themselves have said they are working on one

Original study https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/

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By what percentage will using AI slowdown/speedup developers in the second METR study?

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?

Fortune 500 company attributes >10% productivity gains to AI by Q2 2026?

Will Automation by AI Cut Computer Programmer Jobs at least 25% by 2032?

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Related questions

By what percentage will using AI slowdown/speedup developers in the second METR study?

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?

Fortune 500 company attributes >10% productivity gains to AI by Q2 2026?

Will Automation by AI Cut Computer Programmer Jobs at least 25% by 2032?

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

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