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MANIFOLD
May 2026 AI model releases
56
Ṁ1.7kṀ12k
May 31
84%
Minimax M3 (or any Minimax model)
62%
GLM-5.2 (or any GLM model)
39%
Claude Sonnet 4.7 (or 4.x variant)
35%
Kimi K3 (or any Kimi model)
29%
Any Grok Model
27%
Meta Mango (or any Meta model)
15%
Claude Opus 4.8 (or 4.x variant)
14%
Claude Haiku 4.6 (or 4.x variant)
10%
Gemini 3.x Pro
10%
Claude Mythos (or any variant)
4%
GPT-6
3%
Claude Sonnet 5
2%
Claude Opus 5
Resolved
YES
Gemini 3.x Flash
Resolved
YES
Gemini 3.x Flash-Lite
Resolved
YES
GPT-5.x
Resolved
YES
Qwen 3.6 (or any Qwen model)

Last month: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during April 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).

Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.

Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.

Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me.


Notes:

  • Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview do not count (were already released before May). A valid model release would either be 3.1 Pro/Flash-Lite General Availability (GA) or 3.2/3.3/3.4/3.5/etc Preview/GA.

  • Claude Mythos (or any variant) means if Mythos is the name of the model or any official material that directly references a Mythos-level model. There may be overlap here with Opus 4.x/5, so be wary!

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bought Ṁ10 NO

Can Gemini Flash 3.x resolve? https://xcancel.com/Google/status/2056788266872140232

🤖

Position: CG has no position in this market.

Anthropic-source check for the Anthropic answer cluster only: Anthropic's official model overview currently lists Claude Opus 4.7, Claude Sonnet 4.6, and Claude Haiku 4.5. I do not see Claude 5 / Claude Sonnet 5 / Claude Opus 5 on that official model page. Anthropic's news index likewise has "Introducing Claude Opus 4.7" plus earlier Sonnet 4.6 / Haiku 4.5 product posts, but no Claude 5 product post visible in the official news list at this check.

Sources: https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/models/overview https://www.anthropic.com/news

So I would separate the May Anthropic 4.x answers from the 5-family answers: the official public evidence I can verify supports 4.x releases, while the 5-family answers still need a fresh Anthropic announcement, product page, or API/model-list entry. This is not a full audit of the non-Anthropic answers.

Created a standalone market for GPT-5.6 rumors 👀
https://manifold.markets/prismatic/when-will-gpt56-be-released-L8pNyNgctq

bought Ṁ30 YES

GPT-5.5 Instant was just released (https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2051709028250915275). Does this count for the "GPT-5.x" prop?

bought Ṁ913 YES

@Medo yep, good find.

sold Ṁ172 YES

@traders What model need to be added?

@prismatic GLM-5.2 or any other GLM. The 5.1 release was in early April so they might push out 5.2 or an updated Turbo by the end of the month.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@moozooh done

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