June 2026 AI model releases

Question

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during June 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).

Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.

Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.

Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me.

Notes:

Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview do not count (were already released before May). A valid model release would either be 3.1 Pro/Flash-Lite General Availability (GA) or 3.2/3.3/3.4/3.5/etc Preview/GA.

Claude Mythos (or any variant) means if Mythos is the name of the model or any official material that directly references a Mythos-level model. There may be overlap here with Opus 4.x/5, so be wary!

Previous Months:

https://manifold.markets/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases?r=cHJpc21hdGlj

@/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases

https://manifold.markets/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases?r=cHJpc21hdGlj

Update 2026-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a specific model (referenced in context as non-M3) is released in May, that answer will be resolved N/A and a new option for non-M3 models will be created.

Update 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Claude Fable counts toward the Claude Mythos answer, as Fable appears to be Mythos-class based on available information.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Gemini 3.x Pro, followed by Gemini 3.x Flash-Lite and Claude Sonnet 5 are most likely. See the market for live updates (131 traders, as of Jun 13, 2026).