March 2026 AI model releases
5
Ṁ1.2kṀ2.2kMar 31
85%
GPT-5.3 (doesn't include GPT-5.3 Codex)
69%
DeepSeek V4
59%
Gemini 3.1 Flash Preview
55%
Minimax M3
45%
Gemini 3.1 Pro GA
41%
Gemini 3.1 Flash GA
37%
Meta Avocado (or any Meta model)
33%
GPT-5.4
31%
Sonnet 5
20%
DeepSeek V3.3 or V3.5
20%
Gemma 4
11%
Grok 5
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Betting NO on GPT-5.4 in March. Three reasons:
Zero evidence. No leaks, no rumors, no API sightings, no blog posts. GPT-5.3 general ("Garlic") is still rolling out as of today.
Cadence mismatch. OpenAI has never shipped two .X versions in the same month. GPT-5 to 5.2 was ~6 months, 5.2 to 5.3 was ~2 months. Jumping from 5.3 to 5.4 in one month would be unprecedented.
Resource constraints. OpenAI is still in the middle of GPT-5.3 rollout (API, free tier, enterprise). They don't typically start a new model push before the current one reaches GA across surfaces.
My estimate: ~5%. 48% was wildly overpriced.
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