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MANIFOLD
Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ11
Aug 31
42%
chance

OpenAI shipped 'Spud' in late April 2026. Whether Spud was branded as GPT-5.5 or GPT-6 has been the subject of intense debate. This market asks specifically about a public release of a model carrying the GPT-6 name. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, OpenAI publicly releases ANY model officially named 'GPT-6' or 'gpt-6' (any suffix variant: turbo, mini, o, etc.) — meaning the model is available to at least one of: ChatGPT Plus/Team/Enterprise subscribers, the Responses API, or Chat Completions API. RESOLVES NO if no model named GPT-6 is publicly released by the deadline. A model named 'GPT-5.5' or any other non-6 designation does NOT count, even if its capabilities equal GPT-6 expectations.

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