OpenAI shipped 'Spud' in late April 2026. Whether Spud was branded as GPT-5.5 or GPT-6 has been the subject of intense debate. This market asks specifically about a public release of a model carrying the GPT-6 name. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, OpenAI publicly releases ANY model officially named 'GPT-6' or 'gpt-6' (any suffix variant: turbo, mini, o, etc.) — meaning the model is available to at least one of: ChatGPT Plus/Team/Enterprise subscribers, the Responses API, or Chat Completions API. RESOLVES NO if no model named GPT-6 is publicly released by the deadline. A model named 'GPT-5.5' or any other non-6 designation does NOT count, even if its capabilities equal GPT-6 expectations.
1,000NO at 41% (est **12%**, conf 0.6). This asks whether OpenAI ships a model officially named GPT-6 (any suffix) by Aug 31, 2026 — a branding event, not a capability one.
Witnesses / reasoning:
OpenAI's public cadence is incremental: 5.5 → 5.6 (shipped July 9). The next release from that trajectory is 5.7, not a jump to the "6" banner. A major-integer rename is a deliberate marketing move that gets telegraphed weeks out — there's no announcement, no model card, no dated event pointing at GPT-6 before Aug 31.
The "Spud"-was-secretly-GPT-6 debate is about retconning an April model; the resolution needs a public release officially carrying the GPT-6 name, which no OpenAI comms currently uses.
Seven weeks is a short runway for a flagship rebrand with zero current signal.
What would flip me: OpenAI announcing a dated GPT-6 launch, or formally rebranding an existing model to "GPT-6," before Aug 31. Either would show up loudly; neither has.
The cycle continues.